招商期货-期货研究报告：商品期货早班车-20260115

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Views - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various commodity futures markets, including precious metals, base metals, black industries, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. It offers market performance, fundamental analysis, and trading strategies for each sector [1][2][3] 3. Summary by Category Precious Metals - Gold: On Wednesday, gold continued to fluctuate. London gold closed above $4,600 per ounce. Some Fed officials expressed views on inflation and interest rates. US gold ETFs had a small inflow, while COMEX and SHFE gold inventories changed. It's suggested to go long on gold as its price is rising steadily [1] - Silver: The silver price fluctuated greatly. Speculative sentiment was strong, and the import window was open. Some silver from Hong Kong flowed in. It's recommended to wait and see [1] Base Metals - Copper: The copper price fluctuated at a high level. US economic data was better than expected, but the market risk was accumulating. It's advisable to wait and see [2] - Aluminum: The electrolytic aluminum price rose 0.90% to 24,595 yuan per ton. Supply increased slightly, and demand improved marginally. It's expected to maintain a high - level fluctuation in the short term [2] - Alumina: The alumina price rose 0.72% to 2,800 yuan per ton. Supply was stable, and demand from electrolytic aluminum plants was strong. It's expected to continue a weak - level fluctuation in the short term [2][3] - Zinc and Lead: Zinc and lead prices rose on January 14. Zinc's macro - driven rise lacked fundamental support, while lead faced weak consumption and inventory accumulation. It's suggested to wait and see on zinc and operate in a range or be bearish on lead [3] - Industrial Silicon: The industrial silicon price rose 1.39%. Supply decreased slightly, and demand was weak. The price is expected to fluctuate between 8,400 - 9,200 yuan per ton, and it's advisable to go short lightly at high prices [3] - Lithium Carbonate: The lithium carbonate price fell 3.0%. Supply increased slightly, and demand decreased. It's expected that the price has support below, but there is a risk of a pull - back due to long - position closing [3] - Polycrystalline Silicon: The polycrystalline silicon price fell 0.12%. Supply decreased, and demand was mixed. The price is expected to have a weak - level fluctuation at a low position [3][4] - Tin: The tin price reached a new high. Market risk was accumulating, and the supply was affected by disturbances. It's advisable to wait and see [4] Black Industry - Rebar: The rebar price rose slightly. Supply and demand were weak, with significant structural differentiation. It's recommended to hold short positions on rebar 2605 contracts [5] - Iron Ore: The iron ore price fell slightly. Supply was in line with seasonal patterns, and demand might decline. It's advisable to wait and see [5] - Coking Coal: The coking coal price fell. Supply and demand were weak, and the futures valuation was high. It's advisable to wait and see, and aggressive investors can try to short the coking coal 2605 contract [5] Agricultural Products - Soybean Meal: CBOT soybeans rebounded slightly. Supply was loose in the near - term and expected to be large in the long - term. Demand was mixed. US soybeans were weak, and the domestic market was affected by South American supply expectations [6] - Corn: The corn futures price fluctuated narrowly, and the spot price rose slightly. Supply and demand were balanced, and the price is expected to fluctuate [6] - Oils and Fats: The Malaysian palm oil price fell. Supply was in a weak seasonal reduction, and demand improved. It's expected to fluctuate, with different performance among varieties [6] - Sugar: The Zhengzhou sugar 05 contract price fell slightly. International sugar was under pressure from Indian production, and the domestic market faced sales pressure. It's recommended to go short in the futures market and sell call options [6] - Cotton: ICE cotton fluctuated narrowly. International textile imports decreased, and domestic demand increased. It's advisable to buy at low prices [6] - Eggs: The egg futures price fluctuated narrowly, and the spot price rose. Supply was sufficient, and demand improved. The price is expected to fluctuate [6][7] - Hogs: The hog futures and spot prices rose. Supply pressure was small in the short - term, and demand would increase at the end of the month. The price is expected to fluctuate strongly [7] - Apples: The apple price rose 1.59%. Supply was low, but sales were slow. It's advisable to wait and see [7] Energy Chemicals - LLDPE: The LLDPE price rebounded slightly. Supply pressure eased, and demand was weak. It's expected to fluctuate strongly in the short - term and advisable to go long at low prices in the medium - term [8] - PVC: The PVC price fell 0.2%. Supply was high, and demand was weak in the off - season. It's advisable to wait and see [8] - PTA: PX and PTA supply were high, and demand was weak in the off - season. PX is expected to have a short - term correction and a long - term upward trend, and it's advisable to look for opportunities to go long on PTA processing margins [9] - Methanol: The methanol price fluctuated. Supply was high, and inventory was at a high level. It's expected to rise in the near - term due to supply reduction and inventory decline [9] - Glass: The glass price fell 2%. Supply decreased, and demand was weak. It's recommended to go long on glass and short on soda ash [9] - PP: The PP price rebounded slightly. Supply increased, and demand improved. It's expected to fluctuate strongly in the short - term and have a range - bound movement with a bearish strategy in the long - term [9][10] - MEG: The MEG price had a certain situation. Supply was high, and demand was weak. It's advisable to go short at high prices [10] - Crude Oil: The oil price fluctuated greatly. Supply was abundant, and demand was in the off - season. It's not advisable to chase high prices, and it's recommended to wait for short - selling opportunities or buy out - of - the - money put options [10] - Styrene: The styrene price fluctuated slightly. Supply and demand were weak in the short - term. It's expected to fluctuate in the short - term and advisable to go long on styrene or its profit in the long - term [10] - Soda Ash: The soda ash price fell 0.1%. Supply was high, and demand was weak. It's advisable to wait and see [10]