Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various futures markets, including financial derivatives, agricultural products, black metals, non - ferrous metals, shipping, and energy chemicals. It assesses the current market situation, influencing factors, and offers corresponding trading strategies for each sector. The overall market is affected by multiple factors such as policy changes, geopolitical situations, supply - demand relationships, and cost factors, showing different trends and characteristics in different sectors. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Derivatives - Stock Index Futures: There are differences between bulls and bears, and the market is volatile. Short - term market is affected by policy and may fluctuate, but the medium - term upward trend remains. Suggestions include short - term grid operations, IM\IC 2606 long + ETF short arbitrage, and double - buy option strategies [18][21][22]. - Treasury Bond Futures: The performance is differentiated, and the trend is unclear. Short - term market sentiment is repaired, but the odds of going long are limited. It is recommended to stop profit on previous long positions in batches, and consider shorting the basis of 30Y active bonds [22][23][24]. Agricultural Products - Protein Meal: Supply pressure is obvious, and the market is under pressure. It is recommended to have a bearish view, conduct M79 reverse arbitrage, and sell wide - straddle options [26][28][29]. - Sugar: International sugar prices are falling, and domestic sugar prices are oscillating. International sugar is expected to oscillate at the bottom, and domestic sugar can be considered for low - buying and high - selling in the range [29][34]. - Oilseeds and Oils: Due to the expected improvement in China - Canada relations and Indonesia's policy, the oils market is falling. It is recommended to have a short - term oscillating view on oils and try shorting palm oil at high prices [34][37]. - Corn/Corn Starch: Wheat and corn auctions continue, and the spot is stable. It is recommended to have a bullish view on outer - market 03 corn after stabilization, and short - term long on 07 corn after correction [38][40][41]. - Hogs: Supply pressure increases, but the market is still strong. It is recommended to have a bearish view and sell wide - straddle options [41][42][43]. - Peanuts: The spot is stable, and the market is oscillating at the bottom. It is recommended to go long on 05 peanuts at low prices and sell pk603 - C - 8200 options [44][45]. - Eggs: Demand improves, and prices are stable with a slight increase. It is recommended to go long on the far - month 5 - contract at low prices [46][49]. - Apples: Cold - storage inventory is low, and prices are firm. It is recommended to take partial profit on the 5 - month contract long positions and short the 10 - month contract at high prices [50][52][53]. - Cotton - Cotton Yarn: The sales progress is fast, and prices are oscillating. It is recommended to go long on Zheng cotton at low prices [57]. Black Metals - Steel: Steel is turning to inventory accumulation, and prices are oscillating. It is recommended to maintain an oscillating and bullish view, short the coil - coal ratio at high prices, and hold the short position of the coil - rebar spread [59][60][61]. - Coking Coal and Coke: Fluctuations are large, and it is recommended to participate cautiously. It is expected to continue wide - range oscillations [61][63][64]. - Iron Ore: Market expectations are volatile, and it is recommended to be bearish at high prices [64][65][67]. - Ferroalloys: Driven by cost, prices are oscillating strongly. It is recommended to have a short - term bullish view and sell out - of - the - money straddle options [68][70]. Non - Ferrous Metals - Gold and Silver: The tariff ruling fails again, and the previous trading logic continues. It is recommended to hold long positions near the 5 - day moving average and use a collar option bullish strategy [71][74][75]. - Platinum and Palladium: Geopolitical tensions lead to high - level oscillations. It is recommended to go long on platinum at low prices and be cautious about going long on palladium before the 232 investigation result is announced [75][77][78]. - Copper: Short - term fluctuations increase, but the bullish trend remains. It is recommended to hold long positions entered at 98000 - 99000 yuan/ton [80][82][83]. - Alumina: The contradiction between market sentiment and fundamentals increases price fluctuations. The price is under pressure due to factors such as potential inventory increase and cost decline [84][86]. - Electrolytic Aluminum: It is oscillating at a high level, and it is necessary to be vigilant about market sentiment cooling. It is recommended to have a bearish view on the oscillation [87][90][91]. - Cast Aluminum Alloy: It is oscillating at a high level with the sector. It is recommended to continue to oscillate at a high level with the sector [92][93]. - Zinc: Attention should be paid to the impact of capital. It is recommended that conservative investors wait and see, and aggressive investors hold short positions with strict position control [94][96][97]. - Lead: Attention should be paid to capital sentiment. It is recommended to hold remaining long positions and take profit on out - of - the - money call options [98][100][101]. - Nickel: Indonesian remarks stimulate price increases. It is recommended to have a bullish view at low prices [102][103][104]. - Stainless Steel: It follows the nickel price. It is recommended to go long after correction and stabilization [104][105][107]. - Industrial Silicon: It is recommended to short at the upper limit of the range. The medium - term demand is weakening [108]. - Polysilicon: It is recommended to wait and see in the short term due to factors such as policy and market sentiment [109]. - Lithium Carbonate: The position is decreasing, and there may be a correction. It is recommended to take partial profit on long positions [111][115][116]. - Tin: Bulls are enthusiastic, and prices reach a new high. It is recommended to be cautious about high - level fluctuations [116][118][119]. Shipping - Container Shipping: The second - stage negotiation of the Palestine - Israel issue is in progress, and prices will continue to decline in the second half of January. It is recommended to wait and see and conduct a 6 - 10 positive arbitrage [121][122]. Energy Chemicals - Crude Oil: Continue to pay attention to the Iranian situation. It is recommended to have a wide - range oscillating view and pay attention to the Iran event [123][124][125]. - Asphalt: Crude oil cost fluctuations increase, and supply - demand is weak. It is recommended to have a high - level oscillating view and hold the BU4 - 6 positive arbitrage [125][128][129]. - Fuel Oil: Geopolitical risks increase fluctuations. It is recommended to be vigilant about risks and hold the FU59 positive arbitrage [130][132]. - Natural Gas: TTF/JKM rebounds, and HH continues to decline. It is recommended to add short positions on TTF and JKM in the third quarter and sell long - term rolling out - of - the - money call options [133][136]. - LPG: Pay attention to the Iranian situation. It is recommended to have a short - term bullish and long - term bearish view [137][138][139]. - PX&PTA: Downstream production cuts increase, and cost support strengthens. It is recommended to have a high - level oscillating view and conduct a 3,5 - contract positive arbitrage [140][141][142]. - BZ&EB: Pure benzene supply is expected to decrease, and styrene short - stops boost the rise. It is recommended to have a bullish view in the short term and conduct an arbitrage of short pure benzene and long styrene [142][143][144]. - Ethylene Glycol: Seasonal inventory accumulation is obvious. It is recommended to have a bearish view and sell call options [144][146]. - Short - Fiber: Supply is sufficient, and terminal demand weakens. It is recommended to have a high - level oscillating view [146][147][148]. - Bottle Chips: Prices are oscillating at a high level. It is recommended to have a high - level oscillating view [148][149][150]. - Propylene: Geopolitical disturbances strengthen cost support. It is recommended to have a bullish view [151][153]. - Plastic PP: It is recommended to hold long positions on L and PP 2605 contracts and sell the PP2605 put 6100 contract [154][155]. - Caustic Soda: Prices are weakening. It is recommended to have a bearish view [156][157]. - Soda Ash: This week, it shows a wide - range oscillating trend. It is recommended to short at an appropriate time and sell out - of - the - money call options on the far - month at a high level [158][161]. - Glass: The futures price is falling. It is recommended to wait and short at an appropriate time and conduct an arbitrage of short glass and long soda ash [162][163][164]. - Paper Pulp: Prices are oscillating widely at a high level. It is recommended to hold short positions [164][165][166]. - Logs: The spot rebounds slightly. It is recommended to go long in small quantities and pay attention to the LG03 - 05 reverse arbitrage [167][168][169]. - Offset Printing Paper: The rebound of cultural paper is weak. It is recommended to wait and sell OP2602 - C - 4200 options [170][171]. - Natural Rubber: Global automobile sales slow down slightly. It is recommended to wait and see on the RU 05 contract and hold long positions on the NR 03 contract [172][175]. - Butadiene Rubber: Crude oil freight increases marginally. It is recommended to hold long positions on the BR 03 contract [176][178].
银河期货每日早盘观察-20260115
Yin He Qi Huo·2026-01-15 01:28