Group 1: Sugar (Agriculture, Livestock, and Forestry) Report Industry Investment Rating - Sugar: Oscillating [1] Core View - The overseas sugar market lacks breakthrough momentum, with supply pressure in the far - term. The domestic sugar market has limited trading information, and the market is likely to be range - bound in the near future [1] Summary by Directory Market Review - On the previous day, the closing price of SR605 contract was 5,299 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.88%, and the night - session closed at 5,280 yuan/ton; the closing price of SR609 contract was 5,304 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.72%, and the night - session closed at 5,291 yuan/ton [1] Important Information - The spot price of white sugar in Guangxi was 5,320 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan/ton; the quotation range of Guangxi sugar - making groups was 5,320 - 5,380 yuan/ton, with some prices up 10 - 20 yuan/ton; the quotation of Yunnan sugar - making groups was 5,190 - 5,240 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; the mainstream quotation range of processing sugar mills was 5,750 - 5,900 yuan/ton, with only a few up 10 yuan/ton [1] - As of the first half of December in the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season, the cumulative sugar - cane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil was 598.186 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 14.489 million tons or 2.36%; the ATR of sugar cane was 138.38 kg/ton, a decrease of 3.14 kg/ton compared with the same period last year; the cumulative sugar - making ratio was 50.91%, an increase of 2.72% compared with the same period last year; the cumulative ethanol production was 30.275 billion liters, a year - on - year decrease of 1.717 billion liters or 5.37%; the cumulative sugar production was 40.158 million tons, an increase of 0.343 million tons or 0.86% compared with the same period last year [1] - As of January 7, 2026, in the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season, the cumulative sugar - cane crushing volume in Thailand was 16.9782 million tons, a decrease of 5.765 million tons or 25.35% compared with the same period last year; the sugar content of sugar cane was 11.54%, a decrease of 0.08% compared with the same period last year; the sugar production rate was 9.017%, a decrease of 0.209% compared with the same period last year; the sugar production was 1.5309 million tons, a decrease of 0.5673 million tons or 27.03% compared with the same period last year [1] - The number of white sugar warehouse receipts on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange the previous day was 9,739, a daily increase of 240 [1] Market Logic - Overseas: The ICE raw sugar fell again the previous day. Although the sugar - making volume in Brazil decreased year - on - year in the first half of December, as it is at the end of the sugar - crushing season, the data has limited impact on the market. The market is currently focusing on the production in the Northern Hemisphere, and the overseas sugar market lacks breakthrough momentum. The far - term supply pressure remains, and the market is likely to oscillate [1] - Domestic: The Zhengzhou sugar market strengthened the previous day and slightly declined in the night - session. There is limited trading information in the domestic sugar market. Technically, there is strong resistance at the 5,300 integer mark. Without new driving forces, it is difficult for the market to have a continuous unilateral trend, and it is likely to be range - bound in the near future [1] Trading Strategy - Hold existing short positions in SR605 and pay attention to the performance in the 5,300 - 5,315 pressure range; those not yet in the market can try short positions against the upper - pressure range; consider a double - selling strategy for options [1] Group 2: Rubber (Energy and Chemical Industry) Report Industry Investment Rating - Rubber series: Oscillating; Synthetic rubber: Oscillating with a slight upward trend [5] Core View - The fundamentals of natural rubber are mixed, and the market is mainly affected by macro funds. The upstream price of synthetic rubber is strong, but there is supply pressure. The market is expected to oscillate with a slight upward trend [5] Summary by Directory Market Review - As of January 14, the closing price of the RU2605 contract was 16,160 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 1.16%; the closing price of the NR2603 contract was 13,015 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 1.36%; the closing price of the BR2603 contract was 12,250 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 2.08% [5] Important Information - The price of raw material latex in Thailand the previous day was 58 Thai baht/kg (0.5/0.87%), and the price of cup lump was 52.8 Thai baht/kg (0.3/0.57%); the price of Yunnan rubber blocks was 13,200 yuan/ton (0/0%) [5] - As of January 11, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 568,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 19,800 tons or 3.62%. The bonded - area inventory was 93,500 tons, an increase of 6.14%; the general - trade inventory was 474,700 tons, an increase of 3.13%. The inbound rate of the sample bonded warehouses for natural rubber in Qingdao decreased by 1.64 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.97 percentage points; the inbound rate of general - trade warehouses decreased by 0.33 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 0.33 percentage points [5] - The capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises this week was 63.78%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.75 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 13.97 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 55.50%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.43 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 3.37 percentage points [5] - The price of whole - latex the previous day was 15,850 yuan/ton (150/0.96%); the price of 20 - grade Thai standard rubber was 1,935 US dollars/ton (25/1.31%), equivalent to 13,568 yuan/ton in RMB; the price of 20 - grade Thai mixed rubber was 15,150 yuan/ton (100/0.66%) [5] - The price difference between the RU and NR main contracts the previous day was 3,145 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 10 yuan/ton; the price difference between the mixed standard rubber and the RU main contract was - 1,010 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 85 yuan/ton [5] - The delivery price of butadiene in the central Shandong region the previous day was around 9,700 - 9,900 yuan/ton, and the ex - tank self - pick - up price in East China was around 9,400 - 9,500 yuan/ton [5] - The market prices of cis - polybutadiene rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber increased the previous day. The price of Daqing BR9000 in the Shandong market increased by 100 to 12,000 yuan/ton, and the price of Qilu styrene - butadiene 1502 in the Shandong market increased by 100 yuan/ton to 12,250 yuan/ton [5] Market Logic - Natural rubber: The natural rubber market rose and then fell again the previous day, showing a wide - range and slightly upward oscillating trend. Technically, the market is in a consolidation state. Currently, the overseas raw material prices are firm, but the inventory in Qingdao is still increasing. In the short term, the fundamentals of natural rubber are mixed, and the overall change is limited. The market is mainly affected by macro funds [5] - Synthetic rubber: The upstream butadiene price has been strong recently, and the rumor of export transactions of domestic butadiene resources has boosted the bullish sentiment. However, the current spot supply of cis - polybutadiene rubber is sufficient, and the supply pressure makes it difficult for actual transactions to follow up. Technically, the BR futures price is still in an upward channel, and attention should be paid to the resistance near the previous high. In the near future, attention should be paid to the impact of the overseas situation on the energy and chemical sector, and the market is expected to oscillate with a slight upward trend [5] Trading Strategy - The RU main contract should focus on the 15,750 - 16,400 activity range; the NR contract should focus on the 12,700 - 13,300 activity range; the activity range of the BR contract has moved up to 12,100 - 12,600. Adopt a short - term low - buying strategy [5]
格林大华期货早盘提示：白糖-20260115
Ge Lin Qi Huo·2026-01-15 01:27