棕榈油期货日报-20260115

Group 1: Report Overview - Report date: January 12, 2026 [1] - Report cycle: Daily [1] - Research variety: Palm oil [1] - Researcher: You Zhenqi (Qualification No.: F3012673; Investment consulting certificate No.: Z0012990) [1] Group 2: Futures Market - The closing price of the palm oil futures main contract P2605 was 8,724 yuan/ton, up 0.93% from the previous trading day. The opening price was 8,630 yuan/ton, the highest price was 8,748 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 8,574 yuan/ton, the trading volume was 512,074 lots, and the trading volume was 44.339 billion yuan [2] Group 3: Spot Market - The basis was -74.00 yuan/ton, and the basis rate was -0.86%, continuing the contango structure [4] Group 4: Influencing Factors - Malaysia's palm oil ending inventory was 2.34 million tons (data as of December 31, 2025), and the high inventory suppressed price increases. The national commercial inventory of palm oil was 765,000 tons (as of January 7, 2026), and the inventory in East China was 335,000 tons, and the inventory pressure remained. The spot price was lower than the futures price, and the basis remained negative, reflecting the market's expectation of loose future supply [5] Group 5: Market Outlook - It is expected to fluctuate in a range in the short term. Supported by a technical rebound in the short term, but the upside space is restricted by high inventory and import replenishment pressure. Attention should be paid to changes in Malaysia's production and the rhythm of domestic imports [7]