棉花：延续调整态势20260115

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The cotton market continues to adjust. Domestic cotton spot trading is generally weak, and the overall price of pure - cotton yarn is stable with a slight decline. ICE cotton futures are fluctuating slightly, waiting for new fundamental drivers [1][2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Fundamental Tracking - Futures Data: CF2605 closed at 14,810 yuan/ton yesterday with a 0.34% daily increase, and 14,780 yuan/ton in the night session with a -0.20% decrease. CY2603 closed at 20,835 yuan/ton yesterday with a 0.34% daily increase, and 20,820 yuan/ton in the night session with a -0.07% decrease. ICE cotton 3 closed at 64.96 cents/pound yesterday with a 0.05% increase. The trading volume of CF2605 was 457,154 lots, a decrease of 253,199 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 1,211,692 lots, an increase of 10,015 lots. The trading volume of CY2603 was 8,362 lots, a decrease of 1,999 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 15,756 lots, an increase of 1,045 lots [1] - Warehouse Receipt Data: The number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts was 8,836, an increase of 426, and the valid forecast was 1,612, a decrease of 95. The number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts was 70, unchanged, and the valid forecast was 7, an increase of 63 [1] - Spot Price Data: The price of Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 15,640 yuan/ton, a 50 - yuan or 0.32% increase from the previous day. The price of Southern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 15,630 yuan/ton, a 50 - yuan or 0.32% increase from the previous day. The price in Shandong was 16,067 yuan/ton, a 176 - yuan or 1.11% increase from the previous day. The price in Hebei was 15,983 yuan/ton, a 203 - yuan or 1.29% increase from the previous day. The 3128B index was 15,970 yuan/ton, a 187 - yuan or 1.18% increase from the previous day. The international cotton index M was 72.94 cents/pound, unchanged from the previous day. The price of pure - cotton combed yarn 32 - count was 21,300 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the arrival price of pure - cotton combed yarn 32 - count was 21,026 yuan/ton, a 1 - yuan increase from the previous day [1] - Spread Data: The CF3 - 5 spread was - 25 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan from the previous day's spread. The spread between Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF605 was 830 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [1] 3.2. Macro and Industry News - Domestic Cotton Spot: According to TTEB information, the overall trading of cotton spot is weak, and the local locked - basis trading is relatively better. The sales basis of 2025/26 Northern Xinjiang machine - picked 4129/29B with impurity within 3 is mostly reported at CF05 + 1000 and above, and a small amount with impurity between 3 - 3.5 is quoted in the range of 950 - 1000, for self - pick - up in Xinjiang. The mainstream basis of 2025/26 machine - picked cotton from North and South Xinjiang in Shandong and Henan warehouses with 3130/30 and impurity within 3 is mostly in the range of CF05 + 1350 - 1600, for self - pick - up in the inland [2] - Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises: According to TTEB information, the overall price of pure - cotton yarn is stable with a slight decline. The quotation of combed high - count yarn is firm. The overall market trading atmosphere of pure - cotton yarn is still weak. The actual selling price center of medium and low - count varieties has moved slightly downward. Recently, the sales of traceable yarn and low - count yarn have improved slightly, and most spinning enterprises have limited new orders [2] - US Cotton: Yesterday, ICE cotton futures continued to fluctuate slightly, and the market is waiting for new fundamental drivers [3] 3.3. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of cotton is 0, indicating a neutral trend. The range of trend intensity is [-2, 2], where -2 represents the most bearish and 2 represents the most bullish [4][5]