LLDPE：标品排产偏低维持，期现货继续共振

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2) Core Viewpoints - LLDPE futures and spot market continue to resonate with low standard product production. The spot market has tightened liquidity in the short - term, with improved trade - sample transactions. The outer - market quotation is rising, and the long - term import profit is open, but downstream factories are mostly cautious. The raw material end has mixed trends, and the supply side has some changes with potential future supply - demand pressure [1][2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - Futures Data: The closing price of L2605 is 6820, with a daily increase of 0.80%. The trading volume is 640471, and the open interest decreased by 10862. The 05 - contract basis is - 120 (compared to - 66 the previous day), and the 05 - 09 contract spread is - 35 (compared to - 36 the previous day) [1]. - Spot Price Data: In the north, the price is 6700 yuan/ton (unchanged from the previous day); in the east, it is 6850 yuan/ton (up from 6750 yuan/ton the previous day); in the south, it is 6900 yuan/ton (up from 6850 yuan/ton the previous day) [1]. Spot News - The futures rally continues. The spot market has short - term liquidity tightening due to active short - covering and hedging transactions. PE spot prices are rising actively, and the east - China basis has strengthened and turned positive. Downstream product profits are compressed, but rigid demand orders are maintained, and trade - sample transactions have improved significantly. Outer - market quotations are rising, and long - term import profits are open, with increased importer transactions, while downstream factories are cautious [1]. Market Condition Analysis - The raw material crude oil price is stabilizing and fluctuating, the ethylene monomer segment is weakening, and the profit of PE ethylene and ethane processes has improved. The PE futures market has continued to rebound, with most transactions concentrated in the middle - stream, and downstream has not chased the price to replenish inventory. The near - end downstream agricultural film market is weakening, the packaging film industry maintains rigid demand, but the willingness of middle and lower - stream to hold inventory has weakened after the recent decline. The upstream is offering discounts to sell at the end of the year, and the factory inventory has decreased slightly, with a weak basis. On the supply side, Guangxi Petrochemical is gradually starting up, the maintenance plan in January has decreased month - on - month, and some FD has switched back to standard products. In the medium - term, attention should be paid to the supply - demand pressure brought by high existing production capacity and weakening demand [2]. Trend Intensity - The LLDPE trend intensity is 0 [3].