国泰君安期货所长早读-20260115

Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - China's foreign trade is accelerating its recovery. In December, exports and imports increased significantly. In 2025, imports of soybeans, iron ore, and crude oil reached record highs, while coal imports decreased significantly, and rare - earth exports reached a record high [8]. - Nickel prices are expected to fluctuate widely in the short - term due to the game between industrial and secondary market funds, with the margin depending on the guidance of the Indonesian government's statements [9][10]. - Tin prices have room to rise, but attention should be paid to the profit - taking pressure near the integer level of 450,000 yuan/ton [11]. Summary by Related Catalogs Foreign Trade - In December, China's exports denominated in US dollars increased by 6.6% year - on - year, and imports increased by 5.7% year - on - year. The export amount in December exceeded 350 billion US dollars, reaching a record high. In 2025, soybean imports reached 112 million tons, iron ore imports reached 1.26 billion tons, and crude oil imports reached 578 million tons, all hitting record highs and increasing for three consecutive years. Coal imports decreased by 9.6%, the largest decline in a decade. In December, rare - earth exports increased by 32% year - on - year, and the annual export volume reached 62,585 tons, the highest in at least 11 years [8]. Nickel - The reality fundamentals of nickel are weak, with over - supply pressure and the expected commissioning of low - cost wet - process projects. However, the main trading anchor of the market is the Indonesian nickel ore policy, and the attention of the secondary market to commodities has significantly increased, with sufficient commodity capital liquidity. - In the industrial perspective, there is a wait - and - see attitude towards the quota policy. In the secondary market perspective, there is a long - term view of buying on dips, focusing on the end of the "dividend" cycle of low - price ore attracting smelting investment and possible policy changes in the future. It is expected that nickel prices will fluctuate widely in the short - term, and it is recommended to consider using options in trading and pay attention to structural opportunities [9][10]. Tin - Tin prices have been rising recently. The fundamentals of tight supply, relatively dry domestic tin ore and tin ingot inventories, and the price - insensitivity of downstream demand support the rise. The landslide in the core tin - mining area in the Congo (Kinshasa) may have also contributed to the rise. It is believed that tin prices still have room to rise, but attention should be paid to profit - taking pressure near 450,000 yuan/ton [11]. Other Commodities - Gold: Safe - haven sentiment is rising [15]. - Silver: Reached a new high [15]. - Copper: The strengthening of the LME spot premium supports the price [15][22]. - Zinc: Attention should be paid to the upper pressure [15][25]. - Lead: The decrease in overseas inventories supports the price [15][28]. - Aluminum: Oscillating strongly [15][35]. - Alumina: Oscillating within a range [15][35]. - Cast aluminum alloy: Following the trend of electrolytic aluminum [15][35]. - Platinum: Oscillating and adjusting [15][38]. - Palladium: Following a slight decline [15][38]. - Stainless steel: The price of ferronickel raises the oscillation center, and the market is betting on the Indonesian policy [15][43]. - Lithium carbonate: Oscillating at a high level, paying attention to the resumption of production of overseas mines [15][48]. - Industrial silicon: Downstream production cuts lead to weakening demand [15][51]. - Polysilicon: In a bottom - oscillating state [15][52]. - Iron ore: The valuation is high, and caution is needed when chasing up [15][55]. - Rebar: Oscillating repeatedly [15][57]. - Hot - rolled coil: Oscillating repeatedly [15][57]. - Ferrosilicon: Oscillating widely [15][61]. - Silicomanganese: Oscillating widely [15][61]. - Coke: Oscillating at a high level [15][65]. - Coking coal: Oscillating at a high level [15][65]. - Steam coal: The supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and the price is adjusting narrowly in the short - term [15][69]. - Log: Oscillating repeatedly [15][71]. - Para - xylene: The cost support is strong [15][75]. - PTA: The polyester production cut plan is increasing, and attention should be paid to the implementation strength [15][75]. - MEG: The downside space of the valuation is limited [15][75]. - Rubber: Oscillating widely [15][83]. - Synthetic rubber: The center is moving up [15][87]. - LLDPE: The production of standard products remains at a low level, and the futures and spot markets continue to resonate [15][90]. - PP: The downstream rush for exports supports propylene, and the cost support for PP is strong [15][92]. - Caustic soda: Oscillating weakly [15][95]. - Pulp: Oscillating [15][100]. - Glass: The price of the raw sheet is stable [15][105]. - Methanol: Oscillating with support [15][109]. - Urea: Oscillating upward in the medium - term [15][114]. - Styrene: Oscillating in the short - term [15][118]. - Soda ash: The spot market has little change [15][122]. - LPG: The short - term supply is tight, and geopolitical disturbances are strong [15][127]. - Propylene: The spot supply - demand is tightening, and the trend is strong [15][128]. - PVC: Oscillating weakly [15][136]. - Fuel oil: Rising significantly, and it is easy to rise and difficult to fall in the short - term [15][139]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Mainly following the rise, and the spot price spread between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas market has slightly narrowed [15][139]. - Container shipping index (European line): Pay attention to the geopolitical situation in the Middle East; operating weakly [15][141]. - Staple fiber: Oscillating strongly, holding a long position in TA and a short position in PF [15][157]. - Bottle chips: Oscillating strongly, holding a long position in the near - term contract and a short position in the far - term contract [15][157]. - Offset printing paper: Hold short positions [15][160]. - Pure benzene: Oscillating mainly in the short - term [15][165]. - Palm oil: There are doubts about Indonesia's B50 policy, and the POGO spread is expected to shrink [15][168]. - Soybean oil: The momentum of US soybeans is limited, and attention should be paid to the spill - over effect of crude oil [15][168]. - Soybean meal: Oscillating, waiting for the progress of China - Canada trade events [15][172]. - Soybean: Rebounding and oscillating [15][172]. - Corn: Pay attention to the spot price [15][175]. - Sugar: Mainly operating weakly [15][179]. - Cotton: Continuing the adjustment trend [15][183]. - Egg: The spot market is profitable, and the sentiment in the far - term contracts is weakening [15][189]. - Live pig: The demand expectation is priced in advance [15][192]. - Peanut: Oscillating [15][196].