格林大华期货早盘提示：钢材-20260115

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the steel industry is "volatile" [1] Core Viewpoints - In 2025, the production and sales of automobiles reached a record high with a high growth rate of about 10%. In 2026, production and sales are expected to continue to increase, but the growth rate will slow down significantly. In the short term, steel supply increases, demand decreases, and inventory rises [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - On Wednesday night session, rebar and hot-rolled coils closed higher [1] Important Information - In 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 34.531 million and 34.4 million vehicles respectively, a year-on-year increase of 10.4% and 9.4% respectively. New energy vehicle production and sales exceeded 16 million, and domestic new car sales accounted for over 50%. Automobile exports exceeded 7 million, and new energy vehicle exports were 2.615 million, doubling year-on-year [1] - In December 2025, China exported 536 ships; from January to December, the cumulative export was 6,690 ships, a year-on-year increase of 16.2% [1] - In December 2025, China exported 994,000 automobiles; from January to December, the cumulative export was 8.324 million vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 30.0% [1] - From 2014 to 2024, the indirect steel exports of 74 countries increased from 325 million tons to 410 million tons, an increase of 26%. In 2024, the indirect steel trade volume was equivalent to 93% of the direct export volume [1] Market Logic - In 2025, automobile production and sales reached a new high with a high growth rate of about 10%. In 2026, production and sales are expected to continue to increase, but the growth rate will slow down significantly. In the short term, steel supply increases, demand decreases, and inventory rises [1] Trading Strategy - In the short term, it is volatile. The support level for the rebar main contract is 3,000, and the resistance level is 3,200 [1]