Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Copper: Despite high prices suppressing consumption and inventory accumulation pressure, due to tight mine supply and strong LME spot, copper prices are well - supported and expected to oscillate at high levels. The reference range for the SHFE copper main contract is 102,000 - 106,000 yuan/ton, and for LME copper 3M is 13,000 - 13,600 dollars/ton [3]. - Aluminum: With domestic inventory accumulation pressure, but supported by low overseas inventory, strong spot, stable downstream start - up, and export resilience, aluminum prices are expected to oscillate at high levels. The reference range for the SHFE aluminum main contract is 24,300 - 25,000 yuan/ton, and for LME aluminum 3M is 3,150 - 3,220 dollars/ton [6]. - Cast Aluminum Alloy: Supported by strong cost and supply disruptions, but with average demand. If prices remain stable in the short - term, they may strengthen further [8]. - Lead: The lead price is near the upper limit of the long - term oscillation range, with increased contradictions between macro and industrial funds. It is expected to oscillate widely following the non - ferrous sector sentiment [11]. - Zinc: Although the zinc industry situation has not improved significantly, it has significant room to catch up compared to copper and aluminum. It is expected to oscillate widely following the non - ferrous sector sentiment [12]. - Tin: Despite weak demand and expected supply improvement, with low downstream inventory, prices are expected to fluctuate with market sentiment. It is recommended to wait and see. The reference range for the domestic main contract is 400,000 - 450,000 yuan/ton, and for overseas LME tin is 52,000 - 56,000 dollars/ton [14]. - Nickel: With large excess pressure and inventory increase constraining price rise, but supported by domestic liquidity and Indonesian policies, it is expected to oscillate widely. It is recommended to wait and see. The reference range for SHFE nickel is 120,000 - 150,000 yuan/ton, and for LME nickel 3M is 16,500 - 19,000 dollars/ton [15]. - Lithium Carbonate: After a continuous rise, there is a risk of a significant correction. It is recommended to wait and see or take a light - position approach. The reference range for the GZEE lithium carbonate 2605 contract is 156,000 - 166,000 yuan/ton [19]. - Alumina: With expected decline in ore prices and over - capacity in the smelting end, it is recommended to wait and see. It may be possible to short near - month contracts at high prices. The reference range for the domestic main contract AO2605 is 2,700 - 2,900 yuan/ton [22]. - Stainless Steel: Supported by cost, low supply, and inventory reduction, prices are expected to oscillate at high levels. The reference range for the main contract is 13,700 - 14,900 yuan/ton [25]. 3. Summary by Category Copper - Market Information: LME copper 3M rose 1.09% to 13,300 dollars/ton, SHFE copper main contract reached 103,660 yuan/ton. LME copper inventory increased by 75 to 141,625 tons, SHFE daily warehouse receipts increased by 2.7 to 149,000 tons. The import loss of SHFE copper spot widened, and the refined - scrap copper price difference expanded [2]. - Strategy: The supply of copper ore remains tight, and short - term supply disruptions occur. Although high prices suppress consumption, copper prices are well - supported and expected to oscillate at high levels [3]. Aluminum - Market Information: LME aluminum fell 0.2% to 3,189 dollars/ton, SHFE aluminum main contract reached 24,665 yuan/ton. SHFE aluminum weighted contract positions decreased by 0.5 to 766,000 lots, and futures warehouse receipts increased by 3.3 to 134,000 tons. Domestic and LME aluminum inventories changed, and the spot discount expanded [4]. - Strategy: With domestic inventory accumulation pressure, but supported by overseas factors, aluminum prices are expected to oscillate at high levels [6]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - Market Information: The price of cast aluminum alloy rose 0.93% to 23,380 yuan/ton. The weighted contract positions decreased to 27,100 lots, and the trading volume was 22,000 lots. The inventory decreased by 0.03 to 43,600 tons [8]. - Strategy: Supported by cost and supply disruptions, prices may strengthen if they remain stable in the short - term [8]. Lead - Market Information: SHFE lead index rose 0.12% to 17,369 yuan/ton, LME lead 3S rose 2 to 2,056 dollars/ton. There were changes in various inventory and price indicators [9]. - Strategy: The lead price is near the upper limit of the long - term oscillation range, with increased contradictions between macro and industrial funds, and is expected to oscillate widely [11]. Zinc - Market Information: SHFE zinc index rose 0.80% to 24,470 yuan/ton, LME zinc 3S rose 17 to 3,219.5 dollars/ton. There were changes in various inventory and price indicators [12]. - Strategy: Although the industry situation has not improved significantly, it has significant room to catch up compared to copper and aluminum, and is expected to oscillate widely [12]. Tin - Market Information: SHFE tin main contract rose 8.62% to 413,170 yuan/ton. Supply and demand situations are complex, and inventory decreased last week [13][14]. - Strategy: Despite weak demand and expected supply improvement, prices are expected to fluctuate with market sentiment. It is recommended to wait and see [14]. Nickel - Market Information: SHFE nickel main contract rose 1.80% to 140,940 yuan/ton. Spot premiums were stable, and the prices of nickel ore and nickel iron changed [15]. - Strategy: With large excess pressure and inventory increase constraining price rise, but supported by policies, it is expected to oscillate widely. It is recommended to wait and see [15]. Lithium Carbonate - Market Information: The MMLC spot index fell 1.63%, and the LC2605 contract price fell 3.02% [17]. - Strategy: After a continuous rise, there is a risk of a significant correction. It is recommended to wait and see or take a light - position approach [19]. Alumina - Market Information: The alumina index rose 0.74% to 2,792 yuan/ton. There were changes in spot prices, import profits and losses, and inventory [21]. - Strategy: With expected decline in ore prices and over - capacity in the smelting end, it is recommended to wait and see. It may be possible to short near - month contracts at high prices [22]. Stainless Steel - Market Information: The stainless steel main contract rose 0.98% to 13,925 yuan/ton. Spot prices and inventory changed [24][25]. - Strategy: Supported by cost, low supply, and inventory reduction, prices are expected to oscillate at high levels [25].
有色金属日报-20260115
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2026-01-15 01:41