Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - For crude oil, although the geopolitical premium has dissipated and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, short - term oil prices should not be overly bearish. Maintain a range - trading strategy of buying low and selling high, but wait for the verification of OPEC's export decline when oil prices fall [1][2] - For methanol, the current valuation is low, and its outlook for the coming year is marginally improving. With limited downside space and geopolitical expectations from Iran's instability, there is feasibility for bottom - fishing [5] - For urea, the current internal - external price difference has opened the import window, and with the expected improvement in production in late January, bearish fundamentals are approaching. Therefore, take profits on rallies [8] - For rubber, with a strong macro environment and weak seasonality, adopt a neutral stance. If RU2605 falls below 16000, switch to a short - term short strategy. Partially build a position for the strategy of buying NR main contract and shorting RU2609 [10][13] - For PVC, the industry has a poor fundamental situation with strong supply and weak demand in China. In the short term, electricity price expectations and export rush support the price, while in the medium term, adopt a strategy of shorting on rallies before substantial production cuts [14][15] - For pure benzene and styrene, the non - integrated profit of styrene is neutral - low with large upward valuation repair space. Before the first quarter, go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene [17][18] - For polyethylene, OPEC+ plans to suspend production growth in Q1 2026, and the oil price may have bottomed. Long the LL5 - 9 spread on dips [19][20] - For polypropylene, in a situation of weak supply and demand, the overall inventory pressure is high. The futures price may bottom out when the supply - surplus pattern changes in Q1 next year [21][23] - For PX, it is expected to maintain a slight inventory - building pattern before the maintenance season. Pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips following the crude oil price in the medium term [25][26] - For PTA, it is expected to enter the inventory - building stage during the Spring Festival after short - term inventory depletion. Pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips in the medium term [28][29] - For ethylene glycol, the inventory - building cycle will continue, and there is an expectation of further profit compression and production cut in the medium term. Be cautious about the rebound risk in the short term [30][31] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Market Information: INE main crude oil futures rose 7.80 yuan/barrel, or 1.78%, to 445.50 yuan/barrel. High - sulfur fuel oil rose 148.00 yuan/ton, or 6.07%, to 2586.00 yuan/ton, and low - sulfur fuel oil rose 76.00 yuan/ton, or 2.51%, to 3098.00 yuan/ton. In the Fujeirah port, gasoline, diesel, fuel oil, and total refined oil inventories increased by 0.83 million barrels (13.46%), 0.45 million barrels (19.95%), 1.69 million barrels (19.27%), and 2.97 million barrels (17.28%) respectively [1] - Strategy Viewpoint: Although the geopolitical premium has dissipated and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, short - term oil prices should not be overly bearish. Maintain a range - trading strategy of buying low and selling high, but wait for the verification of OPEC's export decline when oil prices fall [1][2] Methanol - Market Information: Regional spot prices in Jiangsu, Lunan, Henan, Hebei, and Inner Mongolia changed by - 3 yuan/ton, 5 yuan/ton, 10 yuan/ton, - 30 yuan/ton, and - 2.5 yuan/ton respectively. The main futures contract rose 23.00 yuan/ton to 2288 yuan/ton, and MTO profit decreased by 45 yuan [4] - Strategy Viewpoint: The current valuation is low, and its outlook for the coming year is marginally improving. With limited downside space and geopolitical expectations from Iran's instability, there is feasibility for bottom - fishing [5] Urea - Market Information: Regional spot prices in Shandong, Henan, Hebei, Hubei, Jiangsu, Shanxi, and Northeast China changed by 10 yuan/ton, 0 yuan/ton, 0 yuan/ton, 0 yuan/ton, 10 yuan/ton, 10 yuan/ton, and 20 yuan/ton respectively. The overall basis was - 74 yuan/ton. The main futures contract rose 40 yuan/ton to 1814 yuan/ton [7] - Strategy Viewpoint: The current internal - external price difference has opened the import window, and with the expected improvement in production in late January, bearish fundamentals are approaching. Therefore, take profits on rallies [8] Rubber - Market Information: Rubber prices fluctuated strongly, following macro trends. Bulls were optimistic due to seasonal and demand expectations, while bears were pessimistic due to weak demand. As of January 8, 2026, the full - steel tire operating rate in Shandong was 60.54%, up 0.60 percentage points from last week and down 1.60 percentage points from the same period last year. The semi - steel tire operating rate was 68.00%, down 1.73 percentage points from last week and down 10.65 percentage points from the same period last year. As of January 4, 2026, China's natural rubber social inventory was 123.2 tons, up 3.1 tons (2.5%). Spot prices of some rubber products increased [10][11][12] - Strategy Viewpoint: With a strong macro environment and weak seasonality, adopt a neutral stance. If RU2605 falls below 16000, switch to a short - term short strategy. Partially build a position for the strategy of buying NR main contract and shorting RU2609 [13] PVC - Market Information: The PVC05 contract fell 10 yuan to 4878 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4660 (- 10) yuan/ton, the basis was - 218 (0) yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread was - 126 (- 5) yuan/ton. The overall operating rate was 79.7%, up 1%. Factory and social inventories increased [14] - Strategy Viewpoint: The industry has a poor fundamental situation with strong supply and weak demand in China. In the short term, electricity price expectations and export rush support the price, while in the medium term, adopt a strategy of shorting on rallies before substantial production cuts [15] Pure Benzene & Styrene - Market Information: The spot price of pure benzene in East China was 5455 yuan/ton, unchanged. The closing price of the active contract was 5707 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of pure benzene decreased by 123 yuan/ton. The spot price of styrene fell 50 yuan/ton to 7150 yuan/ton, and the closing price of the active contract rose 88 yuan/ton to 7116 yuan/ton. The basis weakened by 138 yuan/ton. Supply - side upstream operating rate rose 0.22% to 70.92%, and Jiangsu port inventory decreased by 0.65 tons to 13.23 tons. Demand - side three - S weighted operating rate rose 0.11% to 40.90% [17] - Strategy Viewpoint: The non - integrated profit of styrene is neutral - low with large upward valuation repair space. Before the first quarter, go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene [18] Polyethylene - Market Information: The closing price of the main contract rose 54 yuan/ton to 6820 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 30 yuan/ton to 6780 yuan/ton. The basis weakened by 24 yuan/ton to - 40 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate rose 0.04% to 83.39%. Production enterprise and trader inventories increased. The downstream average operating rate fell 0.35% to 40.8%. The LL5 - 9 spread widened by 1 yuan/ton to - 35 yuan/ton [19] - Strategy Viewpoint: OPEC+ plans to suspend production growth in Q1 2026, and the oil price may have bottomed. Long the LL5 - 9 spread on dips [20] Polypropylene - Market Information: The closing price of the main contract rose 45 yuan/ton to 6590 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 30 yuan/ton to 6505 yuan/ton. The basis weakened by 15 yuan/ton to - 85 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate fell 1.03% to 73.85%. Production enterprise inventory decreased, while trader and port inventories increased. The downstream average operating rate fell 0.48% to 52.76%. The LL - PP spread widened by 9 yuan/ton to 230 yuan/ton [21][22] - Strategy Viewpoint: In a situation of weak supply and demand, the overall inventory pressure is high. The futures price may bottom out when the supply - surplus pattern changes in Q1 next year [23] PX - Market Information: The PX03 contract fell 20 yuan to 7262 yuan, and PX CFR fell 2 dollars to 897 dollars. The basis was - 12 (+ 6) yuan, and the 3 - 5 spread was - 32 (+ 6) yuan. China's PX load was 90.9%, up 0.3%, and Asia's was 81.2%, up 0.3%. Some overseas and domestic device conditions changed. PTA load was 78.2%, up 0.1%. In early January, South Korea's PX exports to China were 14.6 tons, up 0.7 tons year - on - year. Inventory at the end of November was 402 tons, down 5 tons month - on - month [25] - Strategy Viewpoint: It is expected to maintain a slight inventory - building pattern before the maintenance season. Pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips following the crude oil price in the medium term [26] PTA - Market Information: The PTA05 contract fell 24 yuan to 5116 yuan, and the East China spot price rose 15 yuan to 5075 yuan. The basis was - 70 (- 1) yuan, and the 5 - 9 spread was 46 (- 6) yuan. PTA load was 78.2%, up 0.1%. Downstream load was 90.8%, unchanged. Terminal elastic yarn and loom loads decreased. Social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) on January 9 was 200.5 tons, down 2.5 tons. Spot processing fee rose 14 yuan to 319 yuan, and futures processing fee fell 11 yuan to 352 yuan [28] - Strategy Viewpoint: It is expected to enter the inventory - building stage during the Spring Festival after short - term inventory depletion. Pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips in the medium term [29] Ethylene Glycol - Market Information: The EG05 contract rose 52 yuan to 3867 yuan, and the East China spot price rose 25 yuan to 3711 yuan. The basis was - 144 (- 3) yuan, and the 5 - 9 spread was - 112 (+ 6) yuan. The supply - side ethylene glycol load was 73.9%, up 0.2%. Some domestic and overseas device conditions changed. Downstream load was 90.8%, unchanged. Terminal elastic yarn and loom loads decreased. Import arrival forecast was 14.8 tons, and East China departure on January 13 was 1.57 tons. Port inventory was 80.2 tons, up 7.7 tons. Naphtha - based profit was - 967 yuan, domestic ethylene - based profit was - 848 yuan, and coal - based profit was 283 yuan [30] - Strategy Viewpoint: The inventory - building cycle will continue, and there is an expectation of further profit compression and production cut in the medium term. Be cautious about the rebound risk in the short term [31]
中国五矿：能源化工日报-20260115
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2026-01-15 01:38