集运指数（欧线）：关注中东地缘事态，弱势运行

Group 1: Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided text. Group 2: Core View - The container shipping index (European line) maintained a volatile trend yesterday. The main 2604 contract closed at 1,230.5 points, with an increase of 1,274 lots and a decline of 0.21%. The second - main 2602 contract closed at 1,718 points, with a decrease of 1,401 lots and a decline of 1.18% [11]. - The shipping capacity after the Spring Festival in 2026 has a relatively large growth rate, and the shipping capacity pressure after the festival is relatively greater. Although there is a marginal positive effect of the rush - shipment of photovoltaic and battery products in the first quarter, it cannot reverse the weak supply - demand balance trend of the European line in March - April. The 2602 contract should be mainly observed, the 2604 contract short positions should be held, and the 2610 contract short positions should be lightly held and short positions should be placed on rallies in the medium - to - long term [12][13][15]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - Futures Data: The EC2602 contract closed at 1,718.0, down 1.18%, with a trading volume of 5,642 and an open interest of 10,461, a decrease of 1,401. The EC2604 contract closed at 1,230.5, up 0.21%, with a trading volume of 45,075 and an open interest of 40,044, an increase of 1,274 [1]. - Freight Index: The SCFIS European route was 1,956.39 points, with a weekly increase of 8.9%. The SCFIS US - West route was 1,323.98 points, with a weekly increase of 5.9%. The SCFI European route was $1,719/TEU, with a bi - weekly increase of 1.7%. The SCFI US - West route was $2,218/FEU, with a bi - weekly increase of 1.4% [1]. - Spot Freight Rates: Different carriers' freight rates from Shanghai to Rotterdam vary, such as Maersk's $2,420/40'GP and $1,510/20'GP [1]. - Exchange Rates: The US dollar index was 99.18, and the US dollar against the offshore RMB was 6.97 [1]. 2. Macro News - The US special envoy announced the launch of the second phase of the "Twenty - Point Plan" to end the Gaza conflict, which includes establishing a transitional Palestinian technocratic government in Gaza and starting the demilitarization and reconstruction of the Gaza Strip [10][13]. - Palestinian factions reached a consensus on the requirements for the second phase of the Gaza cease - fire agreement, including establishing an independent committee to manage Gaza [10]. 3. Shipping Capacity Analysis - In January, there are no undetermined voyages, with a weekly average shipping capacity of 309,000 TEU/week, a year - on - year increase of 3.2% and a month - on - month decrease of 3.4%. In February, there are 11 blank sailings, with a weekly average shipping capacity of 271,000 TEU/week, a year - on - year increase of 17.2% and a month - on - month decrease of 12.5%. In March, there are 9 blank sailings and 2 undetermined voyages, with a weekly average shipping capacity of 284,000 TEU/week, a year - on - year increase of 5.4% and a month - on - month increase of 5% [12]. - The average shipping capacity before, during, and after the Spring Festival in 2026 is 313,000, 221,000, and 307,000 TEU respectively, with year - on - year growth rates of 2.3%, 3.3%, and 20.4% [12]. 4. Demand Analysis - In January, most shipping companies felt that the BCO/NVO cargo volume was good, but the FAK side was average. The cargo volume usually peaks around mid - January and then declines [13]. - The cancellation and reduction of export tax rebates for photovoltaic and battery products from April 1, 2026, are expected to boost the overall demand for container shipping (European line) from January to March, but have a marginal negative impact on the demand after April [13]. 5. Spot Freight Rate Forecast - The forecast is that the FAK average in the 3rd - 4th week may be lowered to the range of $2,600 - 2,670/FEU, setting the tone for the first - phase delivery settlement price of the 2602 contract on January 26 [14]. 6. Contract Strategy - For the 2602 contract, it is recommended to mainly observe. Under a neutral - to - pessimistic freight scenario, its valuation center may fall in the range of 1,700 - 1,750 points [15]. - For the 2604 contract, short positions should be held. The short - term target range is 1,050 - 1,100 points, and the upper resistance range is 1,200 - 1,250 points [15]. - For the 2610 contract, short positions should be lightly held, and short positions should be placed on rallies in the medium - to - long term. The upper resistance level refers to the delivery settlement price of the 2510 contract, which is 1,161 points [15]. 7. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of the container shipping index (European line) is - 1, indicating a relatively bearish view [16].