宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2026年1月15日）-20260115

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The overall situation of the beans and oils market in the short - term is weak, with the prices of various varieties showing a trend of weak shocks. The beans market is under the pressure of weak reality and policy uncertainty, lacking upward driving forces. The palm oil market also lacks a one - sided driving force and continues to fluctuate [5][7]. 3. Summary by Variety 3.1 Bean Meal (M) - Short - term, Medium - term and Intraday Views: Short - term: Oscillating; Medium - term: Oscillating; Intraday: Oscillating weakly; Reference view: Oscillating weakly [5][6] - Core Logic: The export prospects of US soybeans are weak, and the crop weather in Brazil is ideal. The USDA report is neutral to bearish, putting pressure on US soybean futures prices. In the domestic market, the supply of soybeans is abundant, and the inventory of soybean meal in oil mills is at a high level in the same period, restricting the rise of spot prices. The rapeseed meal market is under pressure due to policy - related factors. Overall, the beans market is under continuous pressure of weak reality, and there is policy uncertainty, lacking upward driving forces [5]. 3.2 Palm Oil (P) - Short - term, Medium - term and Intraday Views: Short - term: Oscillating; Medium - term: Oscillating; Intraday: Oscillating weakly; Reference view: Oscillating weakly [6][7] - Core Logic: Indonesia confirmed that it will not implement the B50 biodiesel plan in 2026, maintaining B40, which weakens the previous market expectations and causes the price to correct from the high level, but the decline is limited. Indonesia will raise the export tax on crude palm oil to 12.5% starting from March next year, which may support the export of Malaysian palm oil. The market's focus has shifted to the US biodiesel policy. In the short - term, palm oil lacks a one - sided driving force and continues to fluctuate [7]. 3.3 Other Varieties - Soybean Oil 2605: Short - term, medium - term and intraday views are all oscillating weakly. The influencing factors include the cost support of US soybeans, US biofuel policies, US soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean cost support, supply rhythm, and oil mill inventory [6]. - Palm 2605: Short - term, medium - term and intraday views are all oscillating weakly. The influencing factors include Malaysian palm production and exports, Indonesian biodiesel and export policies, EU - related policy changes, domestic arrivals and inventory, and substitution demand [6].