格林期货早盘提示：贵金属-20260115

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The precious metals market is strong. Due to the US inflation data in December being lower than expected, and continuous geopolitical and economic uncertainties driving the safe - haven demand, gold and silver continue to be in a strong position. The short - term fluctuations of precious metals are intensifying, and it is recommended that long - position holders continue to hold their positions while paying attention to risk control [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Review - COMEX gold futures rose 0.76% to $4,633.90 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures rose 7.93% to $93.19 per ounce. Shanghai gold rose 0.46% to 1,039.72 yuan per gram, and Shanghai silver rose 4.40% to 23,270.0 yuan per kilogram [1]. 3.2. Important Information - As of January 14th, the holdings of the world's largest gold ETF - SPDR Gold Trust remained unchanged from the previous trading day at 1,074.23 tons. The holdings of the world's largest silver ETF - iShares Silver Trust decreased by 78.94 tons from the previous day to 16,242.22 tons [1]. - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in January is 5%, and the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 95%. By March, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 26%, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 72.8%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 1.2% [1]. - US retail sales in November increased by 0.6% month - on - month, exceeding the expected 0.5%. The producer price index in November increased by 0.2% month - on - month, in line with the forecast, and increased by 3% year - on - year, higher than the forecast of 2.7% [1]. - On January 14th, a US official said that due to the escalating tensions in the Middle East, the US was evacuating some personnel from major US military bases as a preventive measure. Some US military personnel stationed at the Al - Udeid Air Base in Qatar were advised to evacuate before the evening of the 14th. The US embassy in Qatar had not responded to this news, and many countries urged their citizens to leave Iran [1]. - On January 14th, the US Supreme Court did not rule on the legality of Trump's tariffs. The latest Fed Beige Book showed that the economy is moderately warming up, employment is stable, and tariff costs are starting to be passed on to consumers [1]. 3.3. Market Logic - The US retail sales in November increased by 0.6% month - on - month, exceeding the expected 0.5%. The CPI data in December showed stable inflation, and the core CPI was slightly lower than the market expectation. The possibility of the Fed cutting interest rates in January is almost zero. The CME changed the margin setting method for gold, silver, platinum, and palladium contracts on January 12th, which may trigger frequent margin calls during high - price or high - volatility periods. The weakening of the US dollar index on January 14th, along with safe - haven demand, led to the rise of COMEX gold and silver [1][2]. 3.4. Trading Strategy - The short - term fluctuations of precious metals are intensifying. Long - position holders are advised to continue holding their positions and pay attention to risk control [2].