宝城期货贵金属有色早报-20260115

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No report industry investment rating is provided in the content Group 2: Core Views - Gold is expected to show a long - term strong upward trend, with short - term shocks, medium - term strength, and intraday shocks tending to be strong. The reasons are the cooling macro - atmosphere, increased short - term hedging demand, and the resonance of short - term geopolitical risks, concerns about the Fed's independence, and long - term structural factors. The sharp rise in silver also drives gold up, and the decline in the gold - silver ratio will prompt arbitrage funds to flow into gold [1][3] - Copper is expected to have a long - term strong trend, with short - term shocks, medium - term strength, and intraday shocks tending to be weak. The cooling macro - atmosphere, increased willingness of short - term bulls to close positions, weakened short - term capital promotion willingness, and the resistance of the short - term spot market to high copper prices are the main reasons [1][4] Group 3: Summary by Variety Gold - Short - term: Shock [1] - Medium - term: Strong [1] - Intraday: Shock tending to be strong [1] - Reference view: Long - term strong upward [1] - Core logic: The rise in gold prices is due to the resonance of short - term geopolitical risks, concerns about the Fed's independence, and long - term structural factors. The sharp rise in silver drives gold, and the decline in the gold - silver ratio to around 50 (a 14 - year low) will attract arbitrage funds. Pay attention to the long - short game at the $4600 mark [3] Copper - Short - term: Shock [1] - Medium - term: Strong [1] - Intraday: Shock tending to be weak [1] - Reference view: Long - term strong [1] - Core logic: Copper prices showed a small upward and then downward trend last night, oscillating below 104,000. The increase of copper prices has slowed down this week, and short - term capital promotion willingness is insufficient. The obvious weakening of the 01 contract discount reflects the resistance of the short - term spot market to high copper prices. Pay attention to the technical pressure at the previous high [4]