宝城期货甲醇早报：2026.1.15-20260115

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The methanol 2605 contract is expected to run weakly in the short - term, mid - term, and intraday, with a core logic of weakening geopolitical risks leading to a weak - oscillating trend [1] - The short - term and mid - term views of methanol are oscillating, while the intraday view is weak. The reference view is a weak operation. The weakening of geopolitical risks may cause domestic methanol futures to continue the weak trend on Thursday [1][5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalog Price Trend and View - The short - term view of methanol 2605 is oscillating, the mid - term view is oscillating, and the intraday view is weak, with a reference view of weak operation [1] - The intraday view of methanol (MA) is weak, the mid - term view is oscillating, and the reference view is weak operation [5] Driving Logic - The strongest support for the recent upward movement of methanol prices is the "hard contraction" of overseas supply before the festival. Iran, as the main source of imports, is facing serious supply disruptions. At the same time, the inventory of methanol at domestic ports has decreased, driving the recovery of port spot prices and strengthening the basis. The firmness of the spot end has enhanced the confidence of long - positions in the futures market [5] - After the US President Trump signaled a possible suspension of strikes against Iran, geopolitical risks have weakened, and international crude oil futures prices have significantly corrected. Although domestic methanol futures maintained a relatively strong trend on Wednesday night, there is a lack of momentum for further upward movement [5]