金融期货早评-20260115

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The current global macro - economy is in a pattern of stagflation pressure, institutional disputes, and geopolitical tensions. Overseas, the large - scale liquidity released during the crisis response stage has led to a stagflation situation. The Fed's interest - rate decisions have been involved in political games, and the Trump tariff issue has increased global trade uncertainties. Geopolitical tensions may also disrupt cross - border trade. Domestically, China's exports showed strong resilience in 2025, and the export situation in 2026 may be optimistic [2]. - The RMB exchange rate is expected to continue to appreciate before the Spring Festival. The appreciation is supported by the acceleration of China's foreign trade recovery, but its rhythm will be affected by the US dollar index and the central bank's regulation [4]. - The stock index market may experience a short - term adjustment due to the regulatory action of raising the minimum margin ratio for margin trading, but the upward trend is expected to resume after the adjustment [5]. - The possibility of a short - term reserve requirement ratio cut has decreased for treasury bonds. The bond market's short - term upward space is limited [6][7]. - The container shipping market for European routes is expected to be in a weak and volatile pattern in the short term. Traders can consider short - selling on rallies [11]. - For new energy commodities, lithium carbonate futures are expected to enter a high - level volatile state, and industrial silicon and polysilicon prices are affected by factors such as export tax rebates and inventory [13][16]. - In the non - ferrous metals market, copper prices are in a high - level consolidation state, and aluminum prices may be volatile at a high level in the short term, while other non - ferrous metals also have different trends and investment suggestions [17][22]. - For oilseeds and fats, the external soybean market is weak, and the domestic soybean meal and rapeseed meal markets have different supply and demand situations. The palm oil market may experience a short - term correction [28][30]. - In the energy and oil and gas market, high - sulfur fuel oil may experience a rebound due to supply disruptions, and low - sulfur fuel oil is under pressure. Asphalt prices may be relatively strong in the short term [31][36]. - For precious metals, platinum and palladium may face short - term callback risks, while gold and silver are in a pattern of being prone to rise and difficult to fall [37][43]. - In the chemical market, the pulp and offset paper markets are relatively stable, and LPG, PTA - PX, and other chemical products have different supply - demand situations and price trends [46][55]. - In the black market, steel products are in a bottom - oscillating state supported by raw materials, and iron ore, coking coal, coke, and ferroalloys also have their own market characteristics [64][68]. - For agricultural and soft commodities, cotton prices may have short - term callback risks, sugar prices are under pressure in an oscillating state, and apples, dates, and logs have different market trends [69][77]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial Futures - Macro: China's trade surplus exceeded $1 trillion for the first time in 2025. The country's foreign trade imports and exports reached 45.47 trillion yuan, a 3.8% year - on - year increase. In December, exports of rare earths increased by 32% year - on - year. Overseas, there are issues such as the Fed's interest - rate decision disputes, the Trump tariff case, and geopolitical tensions [1]. - RMB Exchange Rate: The RMB is expected to appreciate before the Spring Festival. China's foreign trade recovery in December was significant, with exports in US dollars increasing by 6.6% year - on - year and imports increasing by 5.7%. The US dollar index is in a high - level volatile state, and the RMB's appreciation is also affected by the central bank's regulation [3][4]. - Stock Index: The regulatory action of raising the minimum margin ratio for margin trading from 80% to 100% aims to cool down the over - heated market. The short - term market may fluctuate, but the upward trend is expected to resume [5]. - Treasury Bonds: Short - term reserve requirement ratio cuts are less likely. The bond market's short - term upward space is limited due to the stock market's upward trend [6][7]. - Container Shipping for European Routes: The market is in a weak and volatile state. Spot freight rates are declining, and there are both negative and positive factors. Traders can consider short - selling on rallies [9][11]. 3.2 New Energy - Lithium Carbonate: The futures price has significantly corrected. The spot market is in a "not - off - season" state, but the futures price may enter a high - level volatile state. Short - term investors are advised to realize profits and wait for opportunities to enter the market at low prices [13]. - Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon: The prices are in a wide - range volatile state. The demand for photovoltaic exports may drive short - term demand, but polysilicon inventory is high. In the medium term, polysilicon prices may decline, while industrial silicon has support at low prices [16]. 3.3 Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper: The spot premium has increased, but the transaction is stagnant. The futures price is in a high - level consolidation state. It is not recommended to open new positions above 100,000 yuan, and enterprises can consider constructing option strategies [17][19]. - Aluminum: The price may be volatile at a high level in the short term due to factors such as the Trump tariff and the cancellation of the VAT export rebate for photovoltaic products. In the medium and long term, the price is expected to rise [22]. - Other Non - Ferrous Metals: Zinc, nickel - stainless steel, tin, lead, etc. have their own market characteristics, such as zinc being in a strong and volatile state, and tin having upward momentum [23][26]. 3.4 Oilseeds and Fats - Oilseeds: The external soybean market is weak, and the domestic soybean meal and rapeseed meal markets have different supply and demand situations. The soybean meal market may be strong in the near term and weak in the far term, and the rapeseed meal market is in a state of weak supply and demand [28][29]. - Fats: The palm oil market may experience a short - term correction due to the Indonesian government's decision not to implement B50 this year. The soybean oil and rapeseed oil markets are affected by factors such as supply and policy [30]. 3.5 Energy and Oil and Gas - Fuel Oil: High - sulfur fuel oil may experience a rebound due to supply disruptions caused by US sanctions. Low - sulfur fuel oil is under pressure due to improved supply [31][33]. - Asphalt: The price may be relatively strong in the short term due to factors such as the winter - storage policy and geopolitical tensions. The market is in a state of limited upward and downward space [34][36]. 3.6 Precious Metals - Platinum and Palladium: The prices are affected by factors such as geopolitical conflicts, index parameter adjustments, and the Fed's monetary policy. There may be short - term callback risks, but the long - term bullish foundation remains [37][40]. - Gold and Silver: The price of silver is rising rapidly, and the gold - silver ratio has fallen below 50. The precious metals market is in a pattern of being prone to rise and difficult to fall, but short - term fluctuations may increase [41][43]. 3.7 Chemicals - Pulp - Offset Paper: The market is relatively stable, and the current situation is slightly bearish. It is advisable to wait and see and avoid chasing short positions [46]. - LPG: The price is supported by geopolitical factors, but the increase in PDH maintenance has a negative impact on the market. Attention should be paid to geopolitical changes and domestic device maintenance [48]. - PTA - PX: The demand feedback is intensifying, and the short - term upward momentum is weakening. PX is expected to be in a tight supply - demand situation in the first half of 2026, but the PTA processing fee increase space is limited [48][51]. - MEG - Bottle Chips: The demand feedback is negative, and the supply - demand situation is under pressure. The price may be affected by macro factors, and it is advisable to wait and see [51][53]. - PP: The supply pressure is relieved in the short term due to increased device maintenance. Attention should be paid to the actual implementation of device maintenance plans [54][55]. - PE: The spot price is strong, but the supply is expected to increase in the long term, and the demand may decline seasonally [56][57]. - Pure Benzene - Styrene: The pure benzene market is in an oversupply situation and follows the cost - end fluctuations. The styrene market is strong due to factors such as exports and macro - news, and attention should be paid to export increments and supply returns [57][58]. - Urea: The price may rise in the first half of 2026 due to the agricultural demand peak season, but there may be a short - term correction. It is recommended to hold long positions [59][60]. - Soda Ash - Glass - Caustic Soda: Soda ash is in an oversupply situation, and the price is restricted by high - level inventory. Glass has high - level inventory in the middle - stream, and the spot pressure exists. Caustic soda is in a state of weak reality, and the price is expected to be in a wide - range volatile state [60][62]. - Propylene: The price may rise due to cost factors and device maintenance. Attention should be paid to geopolitical impacts on the cost - end and PDH device changes [62][63]. 3.8 Black - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil: The rebar demand is seasonally weak, and the supply of steel products is increasing. The prices of steel products are in a bottom - oscillating state supported by raw materials [64][65]. - Iron Ore: The market sentiment has declined. The supply is abundant, and the demand is difficult to support continuous large - scale production increases. It is not recommended to chase long positions at the current position [65][66]. - Coking Coal and Coke: The spot trading has improved, and the basis has strengthened. The supply is stable, and the demand is expected to increase. Attention should be paid to macro - sentiment changes [66][67]. - Silicon Iron and Silicon Manganese: The supply pressure is high, but the prices are supported by the cost - end. Silicon iron is starting to accumulate inventory, and silicon manganese has a large inventory base [67][68]. 3.9 Agricultural and Soft Commodities - Cotton: The price is in a high - level consolidation state. There may be short - term callback risks due to factors such as the squeeze on domestic cotton consumption by imported yarn. The callback amplitude may be limited [69][70]. - Sugar: The price is under pressure in an oscillating state. Short - term prices are strongly oscillating, and attention should be paid to the trend of raw sugar [70][72]. - Apple: The price is rising strongly. The market has a problem of shortage of delivery products, and attention should be paid to the Spring Festival stocking situation [73][74]. - Date: The price is oscillating at a low level. The domestic supply is abundant, and the price may be under pressure in the long term [74][75]. - Log: The price is oscillating within a range, and the short - term bottom is confirmed. The price may have a limited rebound, and attention should be paid to spot price changes and post - holiday demand [75][77].