HTSC·2026-01-15 02:12Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the oil and gas sector and the basic chemicals sector [5]. Core Insights - The ongoing tensions in Iran may disrupt the supply of energy and chemical products, leading to increased volatility in oil prices. As of January 13, WTI and Brent crude oil futures closed at $61.15 and $65.47 per barrel, reflecting increases of 6.5% and 7.6% respectively since the beginning of the month [1][2]. - Iran's domestic unrest could lead to a decline in its oil production and exports, which may create supply gap risks, particularly through the Strait of Hormuz, where Iran's oil shipping accounted for 34% of global maritime oil transport from January to May 2025 [2][3]. - The potential disruption in Iran's natural gas supply could lead to localized shortages in global urea and methanol markets, with significant price increases expected if unrest continues [3][4]. Summary by Sections Oil and Gas Sector - Iran's oil production increased from 1.93 million barrels per day in July 2020 to 3.22 million barrels per day by November 2025, with the country playing a crucial role in global oil supply through the Strait of Hormuz [2]. - The report anticipates that oil prices, which have returned to marginal cost levels, may gradually recover due to the ongoing conflict, despite the need to monitor the situation closely [2]. Chemical Sector - The unrest in Iran may impact its natural gas supply, which is critical for producing chemical feedstocks. Historical data shows that similar conflicts have led to significant price spikes in methanol and urea [3]. - In 2024, Iran's urea export volume is estimated at 4.5 million tons, accounting for 10% of global supply. The report highlights that if unrest persists, it could lead to increased methanol prices in China and a potential urea shortage during the spring planting season in the Northern Hemisphere [3]. Recommended Companies - The report recommends high-dividend energy companies and domestic producers with significant urea and methanol capacities, including China Petroleum (A/H), China National Offshore Oil Corporation (A/H), Huayi Group, and China National Chemical Corporation [1][4].