中辉农产品观点-20260115

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - Short - term Decline: For soybean meal, the short - term decline is due to the USDA's January report increasing the global soybean ending inventory, US soybean area, production, and ending inventory, which led to a fall in US soybean prices and a decline in domestic soybean meal prices. However, short - term adjustment space is limited due to cost and stocking demand [1][3]. For rapeseed meal, although the January USDA report reduced the global rapeseed production and ending inventory, the upcoming visit of the Canadian Prime Minister to China and the expectation of canceling oil and meal tariffs led to a decline. The outcome of the China - Canada meeting from January 13 - 17th should be monitored [1][6]. - Short - term Adjustment: For palm oil, the short - term adjustment is because the latest announcement from Indonesia that it will not implement the B50 policy in 2026 dampened the market's bullish sentiment. Attention should be paid to the export and production of Malaysian palm oil in the first 15 days of this month. If the export data is weak, there is a risk of short - term price adjustment [1][8]. - Short - term Rebound: For soybean oil, the short - term rebound is supported by a decrease in domestic soybean oil inventory compared to the previous period, although it is still higher than the five - year average. The pre - holiday stocking led to good domestic spot trading. However, caution is needed when chasing long positions due to the bearish data from the US soybean side [1]. - Short - term Weak Consolidation: For rapeseed oil, the short - term weak consolidation is due to the expectation of the Canadian Prime Minister's visit and the possible cancellation of oil and meal tariffs, which suppresses the market's bullish sentiment. However, the tight domestic spot situation and strong basis support the market. It is advisable to wait and see before going long on rapeseed oil recently. The outcome of the China - Canada meeting should be monitored [1]. - Rebound under Pressure: For cotton, the short - term is expected to rebound under pressure. The January USDA data is bullish for the ICE market, and the decline in the US dollar index and the strengthening of external commodities support the cotton market, so the short - term US cotton market is expected to be strong. In China, new cotton processing is basically completed, sales progress has slowed down, and raw material inventory pressure has increased. In the short - term, the weakening support from domestic consumption entering the off - season and textile enterprises' year - end holidays should be noted. In the long - term, there is an expectation of continuous price recovery due to reduced planting and inventory replenishment [1][12]. - Short - term Rebound: For red dates, the short - term rebound is because although the high inventory is a significant pressure on the price rebound, the short - term bearish trend has slowed down. Against the backdrop of the peak consumption season due to the cold weather, short - term rebound opportunities can be noted. In general, a bearish attitude should be maintained due to the loose supply - demand pattern [1][14]. - Short - term Rebound: For live pigs, the short - term rebound is because in the first half of January, the market is expected to show a situation of weak supply and demand. Recently, the spot price may rebound due to the entry of secondary fattening. The supply pressure will be postponed until the end of January to February. The next demand peak should be observed before the Spring Festival. For contracts, after the 01 contract enters delivery, attention should be paid to the 03 contract's performance in reflecting the spot price. The 05 contract has a weak supply - demand pattern and lacks spot price support. The 09 and 11 contracts are in a short - term data vacuum period and it is advisable to wait and see [1][18]. 3. Summaries by Variety Soybean Meal - Price Data: The futures price (main contract daily closing) of soybean meal is 2,761 yuan/ton, down 1.04% from the previous day. The national average spot price is 3,219.71 yuan/ton, down 0.17% [2]. - Inventory Data: As of January 9, 2026, the national port soybean inventory is 802.8 million tons, a decrease of 20.8 million tons from the previous week; the 125 oil - plant soybean inventory is 713.12 million tons, an increase of 0.40% from the previous week; the soybean meal inventory is 104.4 million tons, a decrease of 10.78% from the previous week [3]. - Market Situation: The January USDA report increased the global soybean ending inventory, US soybean area, production, and ending inventory, leading to a fall in US soybean prices and a decline in domestic soybean meal prices. However, short - term adjustment space is limited due to cost and stocking demand [1][3]. Rapeseed Meal - Price Data: The futures price (main contract daily closing) of rapeseed meal is 2,314 yuan/ton, down 0.69% from the previous day. The national average spot price is 2,493.16 yuan/ton, down 0.38% [4]. - Inventory Data: As of January 9, the coastal area's main oil - plant rapeseed inventory is 6 million tons, an increase of 6 million tons from the previous week; the rapeseed meal inventory is 0 million tons, the same as the previous week [6]. - Market Situation: Although the January USDA report reduced the global rapeseed production and ending inventory, the upcoming visit of the Canadian Prime Minister to China and the expectation of canceling oil and meal tariffs led to a decline in rapeseed meal prices. The outcome of the China - Canada meeting from January 13 - 17th should be monitored. If the negotiation fails, there may be opportunities to go long at low prices [1][6]. Palm Oil - Price and Volume Data: The futures price (main contract daily closing) of palm oil is 8,778 yuan/ton, up 0.62% from the previous day. The national average price is 8,828 yuan/ton, up 0.68%. The national daily trading volume is 100 tons, the same as the previous day [7]. - Inventory Data: As of January 9, 2026, the national key - area palm oil commercial inventory is 73.6 million tons, an increase of 0.30% from the previous week and 46.85% from the same period last year [8]. - Market Situation: The latest announcement from Indonesia that it will not implement the B50 policy in 2026 dampened the market's bullish sentiment. Attention should be paid to the export and production of Malaysian palm oil in the first 15 days of this month. If the export data is weak, there is a risk of short - term price adjustment [1][8]. Cotton - Price Data: The futures prices of CF2603, CF2605 (main contract), CF2609, and CF2611 are 14,800, 14,810, 14,930, and 15,035 yuan/ton respectively, with varying increases. The US cotton main - continuous contract is 64.88 cents/pound, down 0.05% [9]. - Inventory Data: The national cotton commercial inventory is 557.3 million tons, an increase of 28 million tons from the previous period. The Xinjiang cotton commercial inventory is 468.41 million tons, an increase of 19 million tons [9]. - Market Situation: The January USDA data is bullish for the ICE market, and the decline in the US dollar index and the strengthening of external commodities support the cotton market, so the short - term US cotton market is expected to be strong. In China, new cotton processing is basically completed, sales progress has slowed down, and raw material inventory pressure has increased. In the short - term, the weakening support from domestic consumption entering the off - season and textile enterprises' year - end holidays should be noted. In the long - term, there is an expectation of continuous price recovery due to reduced planting and inventory replenishment [1][12]. Red Dates - Price Data: The futures prices of CJ2603, CJ2605 (main contract), and CJ2609 are 9,010, 9,130, and 9,320 yuan/ton respectively, with varying increases. The spot prices of various grades in different regions are basically stable [13]. - Inventory Data: The physical inventory of 36 sample enterprises is 15,300 tons, a decrease of 349 tons from the previous week, but still 4,470 tons higher than the same period [14]. - Market Situation: The high inventory is a significant pressure on the price rebound, but the short - term bearish trend has slowed down. Against the backdrop of the peak consumption season due to the cold weather, short - term rebound opportunities can be noted. In general, a bearish attitude should be maintained due to the loose supply - demand pattern [1][14]. Live Pigs - Price and Volume Data: The futures prices of different contracts such as 1h2603 (main contract), 1h2605, etc. have varying increases. The national average live - pig出栏 price is 12,760 yuan/ton, up 0.08% [15]. - Inventory and Sales Data: The national sample - enterprise live - pig inventory is 3,847.75 (monthly), a decrease of 0.22% from the previous month; the出栏 volume is 1,233.09 million heads, an increase of 3.80%. The national fertile - sow inventory is 3,990 (monthly), a decrease of 1.12% [15]. - Market Situation: In the first half of January, the market is expected to show a situation of weak supply and demand. Recently, the spot price may rebound due to the entry of secondary fattening. The supply pressure will be postponed until the end of January to February. The next demand peak should be observed before the Spring Festival. For contracts, after the 01 contract enters delivery, attention should be paid to the 03 contract's performance in reflecting the spot price. The 05 contract has a weak supply - demand pattern and lacks spot price support. The 09 and 11 contracts are in a short - term data vacuum period and it is advisable to wait and see [1][18].