格林期货早盘提示：甲醇-20260115

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for methanol in the energy and chemical industry is bullish [2] Group 2: Report's Core View - The methanol market faces a situation of weak current reality but strong future expectations due to unstable geopolitical situation in the Middle - East, concerns about methanol export impact, rebound in crude oil prices, significant port destocking this week, expected reduction in import arrivals after mid - January, and restart plans of olefin plants. It will experience short - term wide - range and bullish oscillations, with the 05 contract reference range at 2240 - 2350. The recommended trading strategy is to hold long positions [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - On Wednesday night, the futures price of the main contract 2605 rose by 26 yuan to 2311 yuan/ton, and the spot price of methanol in the mainstream areas of East China was 2257 yuan/ton. Long positions increased by 7,351 lots to 450,000 lots, while short positions decreased by 7,059 lots to 599,000 lots [2] Important Information - Supply: The domestic methanol operating rate is 91.4%, a month - on - month increase of 1.1%. The overseas methanol operating rate is 59.4%, a month - on - month increase of 1.8% [2] - Inventory: The total inventory of methanol ports in China is 1.4403 million tons, a decrease of 9,690 tons from the previous period. East China and South China both saw destocking, with inventory decreasing by 84,400 tons and 12,500 tons respectively. The inventory of Chinese methanol sample producers is 450,900 tons, a slight increase of 3,200 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 0.71% [2] - Demand: The signing order of northwest methanol enterprises is 46,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 47,800 tons. The pending orders of sample enterprises are 237,800 tons, a slight increase of 300 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 0.13%. The olefin operating rate is 89.2%, a month - on - month increase of 0.6%; the methyl chloride operating rate is 75.8%, a month - on - month decrease of 5.8%; the acetic acid operating rate is 76.9%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.7%; the formaldehyde operating rate is 67.5%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.6% [2] - Import: In November 2025, China's methanol import volume was 1.4176 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 12.09%, and the average import price was 259.09 US dollars/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 2.06%. The largest import volume came from Saudi Arabia at 344,900 tons, with an average import price of 261.53 US dollars/ton. From January to November 2025, China's cumulative methanol import volume was 12.6969 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.60% [2] - Geopolitical Situation: On the afternoon of January 14 local time, US President Trump said when talking about the Iran situation, "We will wait and see how the situation develops." The US government received "very positive statements from Iran", but the possibility of military action was not ruled out [2] Market Logic - Due to unstable geopolitical situation in the Middle - East and concerns about methanol export impact, along with the rebound in crude oil prices, significant port destocking this week, expected reduction in import arrivals after mid - January, and restart plans of olefin plants, the methanol market faces weak current reality but strong future expectations, and will experience short - term wide - range and bullish oscillations [2] Trading Strategy - Hold long positions [2]