油脂油料：申万期货品种策略日报-20260115

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Indonesia has canceled the plan to increase the mandatory biodiesel blending ratio to 50% this year and will maintain the current 40% palm oil - based fuel and 60% diesel blending ratio, which has raised concerns about palm oil demand prospects. Short - term, the fundamentals of oils and fats have not changed significantly, and they are expected to fluctuate mainly [3]. - The US Department of Agriculture has raised the forecast of US soybean production for the 2025/26 season and lowered the forecast of soybean exports. The domestic high inventory of soybean meal and the expected high yield of South American soybeans will continue to put pressure on prices [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Domestic Futures Market - Prices and Changes: The previous day's closing prices of domestic futures for soybean oil, palm oil, and other varieties are as follows: soybean oil 8000, palm oil 8748, etc. The price changes are 14 for soybean oil, - 30 for palm oil, etc., with corresponding percentage changes of 0.18% for soybean oil, - 0.34% for palm oil, etc. [2]. - Spreads and Ratios: The current spreads and ratios of domestic futures, such as Y9 - 1, P9 - 1, etc., have different values compared to the previous values, with significant changes in some spreads and ratios [2]. International Futures Market - Prices and Changes: The previous day's closing prices of international futures for BMD palm oil, CBOT soybeans, etc. are 3969 for BMD palm oil, 1042.50 for CBOT soybeans, etc. The price changes are - 1.0 for BMD palm oil, 3.5 for CBOT soybeans, etc., with corresponding percentage changes of - 0.03% for BMD palm oil, 0.34% for CBOT soybeans, etc. [2]. Domestic Spot Market - Prices and Changes: The current spot prices of domestic products such as Tianjin first - grade soybean oil, Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil, etc. are 8520 for Tianjin first - grade soybean oil, 8570 for Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil, etc. The percentage changes are 0.12% for Tianjin first - grade soybean oil, 0.23% for Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil, etc. [2]. - Basis and Spreads: The current spot basis and spreads of domestic products have different values compared to the previous values, such as the spot basis of 520 for Tianjin first - grade soybean oil, and the spread between Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil and 24° palm oil remaining at - 150 [2]. Import and Crushing Profits - The current import and crushing profits of near - month Malaysian palm oil, near - month US Gulf soybeans, etc. are - 251 for near - month Malaysian palm oil, - 146 for near - month US Gulf soybeans, etc., showing different trends compared to the previous values [2]. Warehouse Receipts - The current warehouse receipts of soybean oil, palm oil, etc. are 29,147 for soybean oil, 1,248 for palm oil, etc. Some varieties remain unchanged compared to the previous values, while the warehouse receipts of rapeseed oil have decreased from 2,622 to 2,222 [2].