Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Since 2026, the continuous improvement of the stock market is the result of the combined effects of the technology cycle resonance, policy dividend release, economic recovery, and the return of overseas funds. The market has gradually shifted from being dominated by valuation expansion to a new stage driven by earnings. It is expected that in 2026, supply - side reforms will continue, pushing up commodity prices and driving up resource - based stocks. With the continuous release of policy effects, the further strengthening of economic recovery momentum, and the continuous progress of overseas funds allocating Chinese assets, the stock market is expected to continue its oscillating upward trend [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Stock Index Futures Market - IF Contracts: The previous day's closing prices of IF contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and far - quarter) were 4737.60, 4740.20, 4740.00, and 4696.80 respectively, with price drops of - 30.20, - 19.60, - 14.00, and - 12.80 and declines of - 0.63%, - 0.41%, - 0.29%, and - 0.27%. The trading volumes were 43598.00, 19748.00, 119874.00, and 25085.00 respectively, and the open interest changes were - 8395.00, 6698.00, 11113.00, and 3003.00 [1] - IH Contracts: The previous day's closing prices of IH contracts were 3109.00, 3108.20, 3114.00, and 3112.00 respectively, with price drops of - 24.80, - 24.60, - 19.60, and - 13.40 and declines of - 0.79%, - 0.79%, - 0.63%, and - 0.43%. The trading volumes were 15452.00, 7165.00, 48861.00, and 9566.00 respectively, and the open interest changes were - 2580.00, 2392.00, 2763.00, and 1422.00 [1] - IC Contracts: The previous day's closing prices of IC contracts were 8221.00, 8218.60, 8197.80, and 8038.80 respectively, with price increases of 52.60, 71.40, 76.60, and 71.20 and increases of 0.64%, 0.88%, 0.94%, and 0.89%. The trading volumes were 47432.00, 29317.00, 173512.00, and 43196.00 respectively, and the open interest changes were - 5764.00, 9646.00, 9403.00, and 4567.00 [1] - IM Contracts: The previous day's closing prices of IM contracts were 8242.00, 8215.00, 8156.00, and 7965.00 respectively, with price increases of 6.20, 19.20, 5.20, and 19.20 and increases of 0.08%, 0.23%, 0.06%, and 0.24%. The trading volumes were 65555.00, 35068.00, 225371.00, and 52601.00 respectively, and the open interest changes were - 6665.00, 12466.00, 4547.00, and 3038.00 [1] - Inter - month Spreads: The current inter - month spreads of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts were 2.60, - 0.80, - 2.40, and - 27.00 respectively, compared with previous values of - 3.20, - 4.20, - 22.20, and - 33.40 [1] 2. Stock Index Spot Market - CSI 300 Index: The previous value of the CSI 300 index was 4741.93, with a trading volume of 364.95 billion lots and a total trading value of 8913.34 billion yuan. The previous two - day value was 4761.03, and the decline was - 0.40% [1] - SSE 50 Index: The previous value of the SSE 50 index was 3112.07, with a trading volume of 71.96 billion lots and a total trading value of 2160.78 billion yuan. The previous two - day value was 3132.93, and the decline was - 0.67% [1] - CSI 500 Index: The previous value of the CSI 500 index was 8227.70, with a trading volume of 422.77 billion lots and a total trading value of 8159.59 billion yuan. The previous two - day value was 8143.28, and the increase was 1.04% [1] - CSI 1000 Index: The previous value of the CSI 1000 index was 8257.17, with a trading volume of 489.80 billion lots and a total trading value of 8842.81 billion yuan. The previous two - day value was 8203.13, and the increase was 0.66% [1] - Industry Indexes: Different industries had different trends. For example, the energy, raw materials, industry, and optional consumption industries had declines of - 0.72%, 0.12%, - 0.83%, and - 0.75% respectively; the main consumption, medical and health, real - estate finance, and information technology industries had declines of - 0.71%, - 0.91%, - 1.59%, and an increase of 1.46% respectively; the telecommunications business and public utilities industries had an increase of 0.60% and a decline of - 1.41% respectively [1] 3. Futures - Spot Basis - The basis differences between IF contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, far - quarter) and the CSI 300 index were - 4.33, - 1.73, - 1.93, and - 45.13 respectively, compared with previous two - day values of 5.17, 1.97, - 2.43, and - 46.03 [1] - The basis differences between IH contracts and the SSE 50 index were - 3.07, - 3.87, 1.93, and - 0.07 respectively, compared with previous two - day values of 3.67, - 0.53, 4.67, and - 4.33 [1] - The basis differences between IC contracts and the CSI 500 index were - 6.70, - 9.10, - 29.90, and - 188.90 respectively, compared with previous two - day values of 29.52, 7.32, - 12.08, and - 158.08 [1] - The basis differences between IM contracts and the CSI 1000 index were - 15.17, - 42.17, - 101.17, and - 292.17 respectively, compared with previous two - day values of 30.67, - 2.73, - 42.73, and - 242.73 [1] 4. Other Domestic and Overseas Indexes - Domestic Indexes: The previous values of the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, Small and Medium - sized Board Index, and ChiNext Index were 4126.09, 14248.60, 8746.68, and 3349.14 respectively, with changes of - 0.31%, 0.56%, 0.18%, and 0.82% [1] - Overseas Indexes: The previous values of the Hang Seng Index, Nikkei 225, S&P 500, and DAX Index were 26999.81, 54341.23, 6926.60, and 25286.24 respectively, with changes of 0.56%, 1.48%, - 0.53%, and - 0.53% [1] 5. Macroeconomic Information - The CSRC approved the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock exchanges to adjust the margin ratio for margin trading from 80% to 100% for new margin trading contracts, aiming to reduce leverage and protect investors' rights and promote market stability [2] - The policy of tax refund for home - swapping residents was extended until the end of 2027. Taxpayers who sell their self - owned housing and repurchase a new one within one year can get a tax refund [2] - In 2025, China's foreign trade imports and exports reached 45.47 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.8%. In December, imports and exports were 4.26 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.9%. China's rare - earth exports in December increased by 32% year - on - year to 4392 tons, with annual exports reaching 62585 tons [2] - The central bank will conduct 900 billion yuan of 6 - month repurchase operations on January 15, with an additional 300 billion yuan compared to the maturing amount, marking the fifth consecutive month of increased operations [2] - The Ministry of Finance, the General Administration of Customs, and the State Taxation Administration issued a notice on the tax policy for goods import and export in the Shenzhen Park of the Hetao Shenzhen - Hong Kong Science and Technology Innovation Cooperation Zone, effective from February 10, 2026 [2] 6. Industry Information - Three departments regulated the competition order in the new - energy vehicle industry, aiming to resist price wars and build a fair market. The China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM) released data showing that in 2025, China's automobile production and sales exceeded 34 million units, with new - energy vehicle production and sales exceeding 16 million units, accounting for over 50% of new - car sales. The CAAM expects that in 2026, total automobile sales will reach 34.75 million units, a 1% increase, and new - energy vehicle sales will reach 19 million units, a 15.2% increase. The inter - ministerial meeting emphasized enhancing industrial chain autonomy and promoting new - energy vehicle development [2] - The results of the sixth batch of high - value medical consumables procurement were announced, covering 12 types of medical consumables in two categories, with 202 enterprises and 440 products selected. Urological calculi surgery - related consumables were included in the procurement for the first time, and the selected results are expected to be implemented around May [2]
2026/1/15：申万期货品种策略日报——股指-20260115
Shen Yin Wan Guo Qi Huo·2026-01-15 02:23