中辉有色观点-20260115

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Long - term holding [1] - Silver: Long - term holding [1] - Copper: Long - term holding [1] - Zinc: Bullish [1] - Lead: Rebound [1] - Tin: Bullish [1] - Aluminum: Bullish [1] - Nickel: Rebound [1] - Industrial Silicon: Low - level oscillation [1] - Polysilicon: Cautiously bearish [1] - Lithium Carbonate: High - level oscillation [1] 2. Core Views - Precious Metals: Uncertainties such as Fed independence, tariff issues, and geopolitical risks are high. Gold and silver have long - term strategic allocation value. The gold - silver ratio has reached a new high, and the long - term upward logic of precious metals remains unchanged [1][2][3] - Copper: Global copper supply is tight, and the US is siphoning global copper resources. Short - term copper prices are in high - level oscillation, with an external - strong and internal - weak pattern. In the long - term, copper is still optimistic due to supply shortages and new demand [1][5][6] - Zinc: Short - term supply and demand are weak, and market sentiment dominates prices. Zinc prices are rising, and it is recommended to hold long positions and gradually take profits [1][8][9] - Aluminum: With overseas production cuts and domestic inventory accumulation, downstream demand is differentiated. Aluminum prices are short - term bullish [1][10][12] - Nickel: Indonesia has reduced its nickel ore quota, and domestic nickel and stainless - steel inventories have decreased. Nickel prices are in a short - term rebound [1][14][16] - Lithium Carbonate: Supply is difficult to increase rapidly in the short - term, and demand is seasonally weak. Prices are in high - level oscillation [1][18][20] 3. Summary by Variety Gold - Core View: Long - term holding. Tariff decisions are pending, the Fed's independence is damaged, and geopolitical issues are escalating. Geopolitical premium trading continues, and central banks continue to buy gold, maintaining long - term strategic value [1] - Market Situation: Fed officials have different views on policies, US economic data is moderate, tariff decisions are delayed, and geopolitical risks are high. Precious metals have reached new highs [2][3] Silver - Core View: Long - term holding. There has been a supply - demand gap for 5 consecutive years, and global large - scale fiscal policies are beneficial to silver in the long - term [1] Copper - Market Review: Shanghai copper is in high - level consolidation [4][5] - Industry Logic: Global copper concentrate supply is tight, and the US is siphoning global copper resources. High copper prices suppress demand, but new demand in some fields is strong [5] - Strategy Recommendation: Short - term high - level oscillation, external - strong and internal - weak. Hold existing long positions and take profits, and wait for a full correction to enter the market. In the long - term, be optimistic about copper [6] Zinc - Market Review: Shanghai zinc is oscillating strongly [7][8] - Industry Logic: Global zinc ore supply may shrink in 2026, and domestic production increases are uncertain. Demand from traditional industries is weak, but emerging industries' demand is growing [8] - Strategy Recommendation: Short - term supply and demand are weak, and market sentiment drives prices up. Hold long positions and gradually take profits. Enterprises should actively arrange selling hedging [9] Aluminum - Market Review: Aluminum prices are under pressure during the rebound [10][11] - Industry Logic: The Fed's interest - rate cut expectation continues. Aluminum production is increasing, and inventory is accumulating. Downstream demand is differentiated. Alumina supply is in surplus [12] - Strategy Recommendation: Short - term, take profits and wait and see. Pay attention to changes in aluminum ingot social inventory [13] Nickel - Market Review: Nickel prices are rebounding, and stainless - steel prices are slightly rebounding [14][15] - Industry Logic: Indonesia has reduced its nickel ore production target, and domestic and overseas nickel inventories are at a high level. Stainless - steel inventory is decreasing, and production is expected to increase slightly [16] - Strategy Recommendation: Take profits and wait and see. Pay attention to Indonesian policies and stainless - steel inventory changes [17] Lithium Carbonate - Market Review: The main contract LC2605 has risen and then fallen [18][19] - Industry Logic: Supply is difficult to increase rapidly in the short - term, and demand is seasonally weak. A short - term inventory inflection point may slow down the price increase [20] - Strategy Recommendation: High - level oscillation in the range of [15500 - 165000] [21]