首席点评：能化多数上涨

Report Industry Investment Rating - IH, IF, IC, IM stock indices, rubber, rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coking coal, coke, manganese silicon, ferrosilicon, gold, silver, copper, aluminum, lithium carbonate, cotton, and corn are rated as bullish; crude oil, methanol, apple, and container shipping to Europe are rated as bearish [6] 2. Core View of the Report - The US inflation pressure has eased, and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation is strengthened. The global synchronous interest - rate cut cycle provides a favorable environment for the rise of precious metals. The long - term upward trend of gold continues, and the price centers of silver and platinum are expected to rise. The stock market is expected to continue the upward trend in shock due to factors such as technology cycle resonance, policy dividends, economic recovery, and overseas capital inflow. The short - term trend of oils and fats is mainly volatile. The prices of some commodities are affected by factors such as supply and demand, geopolitics, and policies [2][4][5][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main News - International News: The Fed's Beige Book shows that the overall economic activity in eight of the 12 Fed districts increased slightly to moderately. Most banks reported a small and moderate increase in consumer spending during the holiday shopping season [8] - Domestic News: The policy of tax refund for residents' housing replacement has been extended until the end of 2027. Taxpayers who sell their self - owned housing and repurchase a housing within one year can get a tax refund [9] - Industry News: The minimum margin ratio for investors' margin trading has been raised from 80% to 100% [10] 3.2 Outer - market Daily Earnings - The S&P 500 fell 0.53% to 6,926.60 points; the European STOXX 50 rose 0.06% to 5,116.59 points; the FTSE China A50 futures fell 0.68% to 15,295.00 points. The dollar index fell 0.11% to 99.08 points. ICE Brent crude oil fell 0.11% to $65.39 per barrel. London gold rose 0.88% to $4,626.10 per ounce, and London silver rose 7.00% to $93.00 per ounce [12] 3.3 Morning Comments on Main Varieties 3.3.1 Financial - Stock Indices: The US stock indices fell, and the previous trading day's stock indices rose and then fell. The computer sector led the rise, and the banking sector led the fall. The stock market is expected to continue the upward trend in shock [13] - Treasury Bonds: The prices of Treasury bond futures have stabilized. The central bank's open - market operation has a net reverse - repurchase injection, and the market risk preference has declined. The expectation of loose policies at the beginning of the year is strong [14][15] 3.3.2 Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: SC rose 1.8% at night. There are geopolitical factors affecting the oil market, and some OPEC countries have compensation plans for overproduction [16] - Methanol: Methanol rose 1.14% at night. The supply - demand pattern is stable, and the supply of Iranian sources is the main trading logic [17] - Natural Rubber: The price trend is expected to be slightly stronger in shock. The domestic production area has stopped cutting, and the demand side supports the stable operation of all - steel tire production [18] - Polyolefins: The futures of polyolefins continue the rebound trend, supported by supply improvement expectations and rising international oil prices [19] - Glass and Soda Ash: The glass futures are in low - level consolidation, and the soda ash futures closed slightly up. The market focuses on the recovery of the real - estate industry chain and the supply - side contraction [21] 3.3.3 Metals - Precious Metals: The precious metals fluctuated at a high level at night. The long - term upward trend of gold continues, and the price centers of silver and platinum are expected to rise [22] - Copper: The copper price fell 0.44% at night. The supply of concentrates is tight, and the short - term price is more affected by market sentiment [23] - Zinc: The zinc price rose 1.31% at night. The supply of concentrates is temporarily tight, and attention should be paid to market sentiment [24] - Aluminum: The Shanghai aluminum price fell 0.32% at night. The short - term fundamentals are weak, but the long - term low inventory and supply constraints provide support [25] - Lithium Carbonate: The main contract fluctuated. The market is concerned, and it is recommended to participate cautiously. The price is expected to be easy to rise and difficult to fall [26][27] 3.3.4 Black Series - Coking Coal and Coke: The main contracts fluctuated at night. The short - term trend is expected to be strong, and attention should be paid to supply, iron - water production, and downstream restocking [28] - Steel: The steel price rose slightly at night. The market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the macro effect accounts for a large proportion [29] - Iron Ore: The iron - ore price fluctuated. The short - term price is expected to be slightly stronger in shock, and steel mills will maintain on - demand procurement [30] 3.3.5 Agricultural Products - Protein Meal: The soybean meal rose and the rapeseed meal fell at night. The Brazilian soybean harvest is expected to be good, and the US soybean production is expected to increase, which will put pressure on prices [31][32] - Oils and Fats: The oils and fats were weak at night. The MPOB report had a neutral impact, and the Indonesian biodiesel policy has affected market sentiment. The short - term trend is mainly volatile [33] - Sugar: The Zhengzhou sugar main contract fluctuated. The international and domestic supply pressures are different, and the short - term price is expected to run within a range [34] - Cotton: The Zhengzhou cotton main contract fluctuated. The downstream demand has support, and the short - term price is expected to be volatile [35] 3.3.6 Shipping Index - Container Shipping to Europe: The EC contract rose 0.21%. The pre - holiday freight rate is expected to enter a downward channel, but the 04 contract may enter a shock pattern due to the game between freight - rate cuts and export rush expectations [36]