镍：产业与二级资金博弈，宽幅震荡运行；不锈钢：镍铁抬升震荡重心，盘面博弈印尼政策

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Nickel is expected to experience wide - range fluctuations due to the game between industrial and secondary - market funds. Stainless steel's shock center is lifted by nickel - iron, and the market is in a game regarding Indonesian policies [1][2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - Futures Data: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract is 140,940, with changes of 2,490 compared to T - 1, - 6,780 compared to T - 5, etc. The closing price of the stainless steel main contract is 13,925, with changes such as 135 compared to T - 1. The trading volume of the Shanghai Nickel main contract is 1,070,694, and that of the stainless steel main contract is 275,984 [2]. - Industrial Chain Data: The price of 1 imported nickel is 142,400, the price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron (ex - factory price) is 983, and the price of battery - grade nickel sulfate is 32,950. There are also data on price differences, premiums, and other indicators [2]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - Indonesia has suspended issuing new smelting licenses for certain nickel - related products through the OSS platform [2]. - China's Ministry of Commerce and General Administration of Customs have decided to implement export license management for some steel products starting from January 1, 2026 [3]. - Indonesia plans to revise the benchmark price formula for nickel ore products in early 2026 and will treat cobalt as an independent commodity for royalty collection [3]. - Indonesia plans to significantly reduce the 2026 nickel ore production target from 3.79 billion tons to 2.5 billion tons [5]. - Some Indonesian mining companies are facing potential fines of about 80.2 trillion Indonesian rupiah for illegal forest land occupation [5]. - Indonesia's energy and mineral resources minister said that the 2026 nickel ore production quota will be adjusted according to industry demand [5]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of nickel is 0, and that of stainless steel is also 0, indicating a neutral view [6].