国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：贵金属及基本金属-20260115

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Gold: Safe-haven sentiment rebounds [2]. - Silver: Reaches a new high [2]. - Copper: The strengthening of the LME spot premium supports the price [2]. - Zinc: Pay attention to the upper pressure [2]. - Lead: The reduction in overseas inventories supports the price [2]. - Tin: Strong upward trend [2]. - Aluminum: Oscillates with a slight upward bias [2]. - Alumina: Ranges within a certain interval [2]. - Cast aluminum alloy: Follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum [2]. - Platinum: Oscillates and adjusts [2]. - Palladium: Follows with a slight retracement [2]. - Nickel: There is a game between industrial and secondary funds, with wide - range oscillatory operation [2]. - Stainless steel: Ferronickel raises the oscillation center, and the market is speculating on Indonesian policies [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold and Silver - Price and Trading Volume: For gold, the closing price of Shanghai Gold 2602 was 1,027.18 with a daily increase of 0.09%, and the night - session closing price was 1031.00 with a night - session increase of 0.14%. For silver, the closing price of Shanghai Silver 2602 was 21030 with a daily increase of 0.39%, and the night - session closing price was 21943.00 with a night - session increase of 4.14% [4]. - Inventory: The inventory of Shanghai Gold increased by 630 kg, and the inventory of Comex Silver decreased by 2,255,181 troy ounces [4]. - Macro and Industry News: The minimum margin ratio for margin trading on the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock exchanges was raised from 80% to 100. The US Supreme Court failed to rule on the Trump tariff policy case again, and the Nasdaq maintained a 1% decline. The US November retail sales unexpectedly strengthened, the PPI rebounded year - on - year, and the December existing - home sales were the strongest since 2023 [4][6][7]. Copper - Price and Trading Volume: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 103,870 with a daily increase of 1.54%, and the night - session closing price was 103660 with a night - session decrease of 0.20%. The trading volume of the Shanghai Copper index increased by 22,824 [8]. - Inventory and Premium: The LME copper inventory increased by 75 tons, and the LME copper premium strengthened, with an increase of 25.92 compared to the previous day [8]. - Macro and Industry News: Similar to the gold and silver section, also including that global copper demand is expected to increase significantly by 2040 driven by AI and defense. The 2026 copper premium proposed by Pan - Pacific Copper to Japanese domestic customers reached a record high of $330 per ton [8][10]. Zinc - Price and Trading Volume: The closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract was 24475 with a daily increase of 0.80%, and the trading volume increased by 54828 [11]. - Premium and Inventory: The LME CASH - 3M premium increased by 21.55, and the LME zinc inventory decreased by 175 tons [11]. - News: The US Supreme Court failed to rule on the Trump tariff policy case, and the US November retail sales unexpectedly strengthened [12]. Lead - Price and Trading Volume: The closing price of the Shanghai Lead main contract was 17385 with a daily increase of 0.14%, and the trading volume increased by 6891 [14]. - Inventory and Premium: The LME lead inventory decreased by 3725 tons, and the LME CASH - 3M premium decreased by 0.18 [14]. - News: Similar to the above, including US economic data and Fed officials' stances [15]. Tin - Price and Trading Volume: The closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 413,170 with a daily increase of 8.92%, and the night - session closing price was 436,540 with a night - session increase of 9.18% [18]. - Inventory and Premium: The Shanghai Tin inventory increased by 862 tons, and the LME tin (spot/three - month) premium increased by 22 [18]. - Macro and Industry News: The US will suspend visas for 75 countries, the US November retail sales exceeded expectations, the yen reached an 18 - month low, and other news [20]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - Price and Trading Volume: For aluminum, the closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 24595, and the trading volume decreased by 47846. For alumina, the closing price of the Shanghai Alumina main contract was 2800, and the trading volume decreased by 273575. For cast aluminum alloy, the closing price of the main contract was 23380, and the trading volume decreased by 8122 [21]. - Inventory and Premium: The LME aluminum inventory decreased by 0.20 million tons, and the LME aluminum premium was 22.09 [21]. - Comprehensive News: Fed officials' stances on interest rates, and other news [23]. Platinum and Palladium - Trend Intensity: Platinum has a trend intensity of 0, and palladium has a trend intensity of 0 [25]. - Related News: US economic data, Iran situation, US Supreme Court's non - ruling on Trump tariffs, Trump's chip tariff policy, and other news [26]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - Price and Trading Volume: For nickel, the closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 140,940, and the trading volume decreased by 206,996. For stainless steel, the closing price of the main contract was 13,925, and the trading volume decreased by 71,570 [28]. - Industry News: The Indonesian government suspended the issuance of new smelting licenses, China implemented export license management for some steel products, Indonesia planned to revise the nickel ore benchmark price formula, and other news [28][29][31].