中辉能化观点-20260115

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude Oil: Bearish Rebound [1] - LPG: Bearish Rebound [1] - L: Bearish Rebound [1] - PP: Bearish Rebound [1] - PVC: Bearish Consolidation [1] - PX/PTA: Range - bound [2] - Ethylene Glycol (MEG): Cautiously Bearish [2] - Methanol: Bullish Direction [2] - Urea: Bullish - biased Consolidation [3] - Natural Gas: Cautiously Bearish [6] - Asphalt: Bearish Rebound [6] - Glass: Bearish Continuation [6] - Soda Ash: Bearish Continuation [6] 2. Report's Core Views - The geopolitical risks in the energy and chemical industries have been priced in, and the subsequent geopolitical trends in the Middle East and South America should be closely monitored. The overall supply in the industry is relatively abundant, and the demand is affected by seasonal factors and geopolitical situations. Some products are in a bearish rebound or consolidation state, while others are facing downward pressure in the medium - to long - term [1][2][6]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Market Performance: Overnight, oil prices rebounded, with WTI up 1.19%, Brent up 1.60%, and SC up 2.34% [8][9]. - Basic Logic: In the short - term, Middle East geopolitical tensions and Trump's tariff threat led to a rebound in oil prices. In the long - term, due to oversupply during the off - season and the expansion of OPEC + production, oil prices are under downward pressure [10]. - Fundamentals: Geopolitical uncertainties in the Middle East led to a short - term rebound in oil prices. Iran's current floating crude oil inventory is about 170 million barrels. India's fuel consumption in December reached a record high. As of January 2, US crude oil inventory decreased, while gasoline, distillate, and strategic crude oil reserve increased [11]. - Strategy Recommendation: In the medium - to long - term, OPEC +'s production increase will push oil prices into a low - price range. Pay attention to the production changes in non - OPEC + regions. In the short - term, there is a rebound, but in the long - term, it is under pressure. Focus on the SC range of [445 - 460] [12]. LPG - Market Performance: On January 14, the PG main contract closed at 4308 yuan/ton, up 1.22% month - on - month [14]. - Basic Logic: In the short - term, it rebounds with oil prices, and in the long - term, oil prices are under pressure. The refinery's production decreased, but the downstream chemical demand has resilience, and the inventory decreased [15]. - Strategy Recommendation: From a supply - demand perspective, the oversupply of upstream crude oil will lead to a downward shift in the price center. In the short - term, there is uncertainty in oil prices, and in the long - term, it is bearish. Focus on the PG range of [4200 - 4300] [16]. L - Market Performance: The L05 contract had a certain increase, and the basis was repaired to the flat - water state [18]. - Basic Logic: The cost support improved, and the basis was repaired. The proportion of Iranian imports increased, and the planned device maintenance increased, with expected production decline. The inventory of Sinopec and PetroChina decreased, and the market is expected to continue to repair profits [20]. - Strategy Recommendation: Focus on the L range of [6800 - 6950] [20]. PP - Market Performance: The PP05 contract rose slightly [22]. - Basic Logic: Short - term geopolitical disturbances and the rush to export of acrylonitrile downstream led to the strengthening of acrylonitrile. The supply - demand is weak, and the demand enters the off - season in January. The PDH profit is compressed, increasing the expectation of maintenance [24]. - Strategy Recommendation: Pay attention to PDH device dynamics and focus on the PP range of [6550 - 6750] [24]. PVC - Market Performance: The V05 contract showed a slight decline [25]. - Basic Logic: The cancellation of export tax rebates led to a short - term expectation of a rush to export. The domestic start - up rate increased, and the supply - demand is in a weak state. The cost support is strengthening, increasing the expectation of future maintenance [27]. - Strategy Recommendation: Focus on the V range of [4800 - 5000] [27]. PX/PTA - Market Performance: TA05 closed at 5108 yuan/ton, and the processing fee improved [28]. - Basic Logic: The valuation is not low, the supply - side device changes are small, and the overall planned maintenance volume is high. The downstream demand is relatively good but expected to weaken. The cost - side PX is in a weak balance. There is a slight accumulation of inventory from January to February, but the outlook is positive from the perspective of production and demand [29]. - Strategy Recommendation: The supply - demand is in a tight balance. Pay attention to the opportunity to buy on dips for the 05 contract. Focus on the TA05 range of [5100 - 5200] [30]. Ethylene Glycol (MEG) - Market Performance: The EG05 contract decreased slightly [31]. - Basic Logic: The valuation is low. The domestic device load has increased, and the downstream demand is relatively good but expected to weaken. The port inventory is increasing, with inventory accumulation pressure in January. It lacks upward driving forces and follows cost fluctuations in the short - term [32]. - Strategy Recommendation: Stop losses on short positions and pay attention to opportunities to short on rebounds. Focus on the EG05 range of [3830 - 3899] [33]. Methanol - Market Performance: The main contract increased with reduced positions [36]. - Basic Logic: The valuation is not low. The domestic and overseas methanol device loads have increased. The supply - side pressure still exists, and the demand has slightly improved. The cost support is weak and stable. The supply - demand is slightly loose, but the downward space is limited [36]. - Strategy Recommendation: Pay attention to the opportunity to buy on dips for the 05 contract. Focus on the MA05 range of [2270 - 2310] [38]. Urea - Market Performance: The UR05 contract showed a certain increase [39]. - Basic Logic: The absolute valuation is not low. The overall start - up load has increased, and the demand is weak. The winter storage is progressing steadily, but the positive impact is limited. The domestic supply - demand is loose, and there is a spring fertilizer - using trading expectation [40]. - Strategy Recommendation: Pay attention to the opportunity to buy on dips for the 05 contract, but the rebound height is restricted by the increasing supply - side pressure. Focus on the UR05 range of [1780 - 1830] [42]. Natural Gas - Market Performance: On January 14, the NG main contract closed at 3.419 US dollars/million British thermal units, up 0.29% month - on - month [45]. - Basic Logic: The supply is relatively abundant, and the demand support has decreased recently. The inventory in the US has decreased. In the winter, the demand has support, but the supply pressure leads to downward - pressured prices [46]. - Strategy Recommendation: Focus on the NG range of [2.725 - 3.370] [46]. Asphalt - Market Performance: The main contract rose, and the valuation is gradually returning to normal [47]. - Basic Logic: The cost - side oil price rebounded, and the geopolitical situation in South America and the Middle East should be monitored. The supply - demand is generally loose, and the demand has entered the off - season [49]. - Strategy Recommendation: The valuation has returned to normal, and the supply - side uncertainty has increased. Pay attention to geopolitical risks. Focus on the BU range of [3150 - 3250] [50]. Glass - Market Performance: The FG05 contract showed a weak shock [52]. - Basic Logic: The inventory of traders in Shahe is at a record high, and the supply - demand is weak. The daily melting volume has increased slightly, and the profit of three processes has turned negative. The weak demand in the real estate market restricts the upward space [54]. - Strategy Recommendation: Focus on the FG range of [1070 - 1120] [54]. Soda Ash - Market Performance: The SA05 contract showed a weak shock [56]. - Basic Logic: The factory inventory has increased counter - seasonally. The demand for heavy soda ash is insufficient, and the supply is expected to be loose in the medium - to long - term. The real estate demand is weak, and the cold - repair expectation of float glass has increased [58]. - Strategy Recommendation: Focus on the SA range of [1180 - 1230] [58].