黑色金属数据日报-20260115

Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided Core Views - Steel prices fluctuate narrowly with weak spot prices. There is no resonance rebound yet, so continue to wait and see on a single - side basis. For hot - rolled coils, conduct rolling operations on spot - futures arbitrage or use option strategies to assist spot procurement [2][6] - The fundamentals of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese remain under pressure with high supply and weak demand. There is a high risk of a decline in the future, and industrial customers should hedge at high prices [2][6] - The expectation of the first round of coke price increase is strengthening. It is advisable to buy on dips, but be cautious due to volatile emotions [4][6] - Iron ore prices have fallen from the peak. It is recommended to wait and see as the valuation is moderately high and there are inventory pressures [5][9] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - On Wednesday, futures prices fluctuated narrowly, and the spot market had weak follow - up increase momentum and light trading volume. There is abundant market liquidity, and the logic of commodity capital rotation has not been completely disproven. Although iron ore production is rising and there is downstream replenishment demand, the spot follow - up increase is insufficient, and there is no resonance rebound. Use a unilateral range - bound trading idea, conduct rolling operations on hot - rolled coil spot - futures arbitrage, or use option strategies to assist spot procurement [2][6] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - As market sentiment subsides, the prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are oscillating. Demand is poor as steel prices are under pressure, and the weekly apparent consumption has fallen to the lowest point of the year. In the off - season of terminal demand, demand is difficult to improve. Supply is still high despite poor alloy plant profits, and there is a large medium - term supply surplus pressure. Although there are policy benefits, the follow - up market is under pressure to fall, and industrial customers should hedge at high prices [2][6] Coking Coal and Coke - The expectation of the first round of coke price increase is strengthening. The overall trading atmosphere of coking coal is strong. In the futures market, there is resonance in capital market sentiment and large fluctuations. In the off - season, industry data is weak, and it is necessary to pay attention to downstream replenishment. It is advisable to buy on dips, but be cautious due to volatile emotions [4][6] Iron Ore - Iron ore prices have fallen after reaching the previous pressure level due to the resonance decline of the commodity index and market rumors. The valuation is moderately high, and the port inventory is rising. It is not recommended to chase the long or short positions, so it is advisable to wait and see [5][9]