华宝期货晨报铝锭-20260115

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The price of finished products is expected to fluctuate and consolidate, with its center of gravity moving downward and a weak operation [1][3] - The price of aluminum ingots is expected to remain high in the short - term, but there are risks at high prices [1][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Finished Products - Yunnan and Guizhou short - process construction steel enterprises are expected to affect a total output of 741,000 tons of construction steel during the Spring Festival shutdown from mid - January to around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month [2] - Six short - process steel mills in Anhui: one started to shut down on January 5, most will shut down around mid - January, and some individual mills will shut down after January 20, with a daily impact on production of about 16,200 tons [2][3] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction (signing) area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [3] - The price of finished products continued to decline yesterday, reaching a new low recently. In the pattern of weak supply and demand and pessimistic market sentiment, the price center has been moving down. This year's winter storage is sluggish, providing weak support for prices [3] Aluminum - As of January 14, the SMM imported bauxite index was reported at $67.33/ton, a decrease of $0.09/ton from the previous trading day. The SMM Guinea FOB average price and CIF average price were flat compared with the previous trading day [3] - The tight supply of domestic bauxite has eased, and alumina plants' bauxite inventories have continued to accumulate. With the pressure on the alumina spot price, the intended transaction price of domestic bauxite for alumina plants has continued to decline. Imported bauxite's intended transaction price has also declined, and the market is lightly traded [3] - Last week, the weekly operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises increased by 0.2 percentage points to 60.1%. The operating rates of various sectors of aluminum processing are differentiated, showing a pattern of "eased supply - side disturbances and intensified demand - side suppression". High aluminum prices have restricted downstream consumption and the recovery of the industry operating rate [3] - As of January 12, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 730,000 tons, an increase of 46,000 tons from the previous Monday [3] - The macro performance is strong. Driven by the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation and domestic monetary easing and consumption policies, aluminum prices remain high. However, it is in the domestic off - season, and inventories are gradually accumulating [4]