光大期货金融期货日报-20260115

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for stock index futures is "volatile", and for treasury bond futures is "relatively strong" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - The A-share market had a volatile performance on January 15, 2026, with the overall market surging and then falling back, and the three major indexes showing mixed results. The trading volume of the whole market was close to 4 trillion, hitting a new high. The index increase at the beginning of 2026 was mainly driven by global technological development, and geopolitical tensions also made rare metals popular. The stock index is expected to be volatile, and investors should be cautious about chasing high prices and mainly adopt a wait-and-see approach [1] - Treasury bond futures showed mixed results. The short - term reasonable and sufficient liquidity is the biggest support for the bond market, but factors such as economic stability, rising inflation, and cautious attitude towards interest rate cuts restrict the bond market. The bond market is expected to remain in a range - bound pattern in the short term [1][2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Viewpoints Stock Index Futures - The market had a volatile performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.31%, the Shenzhen Component Index up 0.56%, and the ChiNext Index up 0.82%. The rise was driven by technological development and geopolitical factors. The short - term trend is volatile, and investors are advised to be cautious [1] Treasury Bond Futures - The 30 - year main contract was down 0.04%, the 10 - year main contract was up 0.08%, the 5 - year main contract was up 0.04%, and the 2 - year main contract was flat. The central bank carried out 240.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase, with a net injection of 212.2 billion yuan. The bond market is expected to be range - bound in the short term [1][2] 3.2 Daily Price Changes Stock Index Futures - IH decreased by 0.75% from 3,137.6 to 3,114.0; IF decreased by 0.39% from 4,758.6 to 4,740.0; IC increased by 0.82% from 8,131.2 to 8,197.8; IM decreased by 0.05% from 8,160.4 to 8,156.0 [3] - The Shanghai 50 Index decreased by 0.67% from 3,132.9 to 3,112.1; the CSI 300 Index decreased by 0.40% from 4,761.0 to 4,741.9; the CSI 500 Index increased by 1.04% from 8,143.3 to 8,227.7; the CSI 1000 Index increased by 0.66% from 8,203.1 to 8,257.2 [3] Treasury Bond Futures - TS remained flat at 102.33; TF increased by 0.03% from 105.63 to 105.66; T increased by 0.07% from 107.85 to 107.93; TL decreased by 0.07% from 111.35 to 111.27 [3] 3.3 Market News - The Ministry of Science and Technology will strengthen financial services for major national scientific and technological tasks and technology - based small and medium - sized enterprises in 2026, and play a role in the science - finance coordination mechanism [4] 3.4 Chart Analysis Stock Index Futures - The report presents the trends and basis trends of IH, IF, IM, and IC main contracts [5][6][7][8][9][10] Treasury Bond Futures - The report shows the trends of treasury bond futures main contracts, treasury bond spot yields, basis, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and capital interest rates [12][13][14][15][16][17][18][21] Exchange Rates - The report displays the trends of the US dollar against the Chinese yuan, the euro against the Chinese yuan, forward exchange rates, the US dollar index, euro - US dollar, pound - US dollar, and US dollar - Japanese yen exchange rates [22][23][24][25][27][29]