对二甲苯：成本支撑偏强PTA：聚酯减产计划增加，关注兑现力度MEG：估值下方空间有限

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views - PX: Unilateral price is expected to follow the upward trend with cost support from rising oil prices, but pay attention to the implementation of the decline in downstream PTA and polyester operations. Consider long PX and short PTA, long SC and short PX hedging, and focus on the positive spread of monthly contracts [6]. - PTA: The unilateral valuation is expected to be strong following the cost - end trends of crude oil and PX. High processing fees, so pay attention to reducing processing fee positions. The supply increase is limited, and the actual implementation of polyester production cuts needs to be observed. The market is expected to be in tight balance this week [7]. - MEG: Unilateral short - term strong rebound, close short positions. Pay attention to the implementation of spring maintenance of coal - chemical ethylene glycol plants [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs PX - Price and Market Data: Yesterday, the PX futures main contract closed at 7262, down 20 with a decline of 0.27%. The PX5 - 9 spread closed at 60, up 2. The PX CFR China spot price was 897.33 dollars/ton, down 1.34. The PX - naphtha spread was 339.75 dollars/ton, down 6.17 [2]. - Supply and Demand: Due to geopolitical tensions, oil prices have risen, pushing up Asian spot prices. However, with the expected decline in Chinese polyester plant activities in the coming weeks, PX spot prices have gained little. Some small polyester producers with annual capacities between 250,000 and 1.2 million tons will stop production from mid - January to late February. The overall PX supply is loose with high domestic plant operating rates and expected high imports in December [2][3][6]. - Trading Situation: On January 14, there were multiple bids and offers for February and March delivery in the Asian PX Platts market, and one transaction was completed. The naphtha price fell in the late session, and the PX price also declined, with a February Asian spot trading at 896 dollars/ton [4]. PTA - Price and Market Data: Yesterday, the PTA futures main contract closed at 5116, down 24 with a decline of 0.47%. The PTA5 - 9 spread closed at 46, down 6. The PTA East China spot price was 5072 yuan/ton, up 12. The PTA processing fee was 320.45 yuan/ton, down 52.31 [2]. - Supply and Demand: A 3 - million - ton PTA plant in East China has restarted, a 2.5 - million - ton plant is expected to stop at the end of the month, a 3.6 - million - ton plant is reducing its load and will stop for maintenance tomorrow, and a 1.25 - million - ton plant in South China is expected to stop in the next two days and restart in early March. The PTA operating rate is currently 78%, and the load increase space is limited in January. Polyester production cut plans have increased, and the polyester load is expected to drop to 84 - 85% at the end of January [4][7]. MEG - Price and Market Data: Yesterday, the MEG futures main contract closed at 3867, up 52 with an increase of 1.36%. The MEG5 - 9 spread closed at - 112, up 6. The MEG spot price was 3718 yuan/ton, up 36 [2]. - Supply and Demand: The short - term unilateral price is expected to rebound strongly. Attention should be paid to the implementation of spring maintenance of coal - chemical ethylene glycol plants [7]. Polyester - Production and Sales: A major polyester manufacturer in Xiaoshan has announced maintenance plans for 6 polyester plants around the Spring Festival. Another major manufacturer in Tongxiang plans to arrange maintenance for 3 plants after the Spring Festival. The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are generally weak today, with an average sales rate of 40 - 50% by 3:30 pm. The sales of direct - spun polyester staple fiber are highly differentiated, with an average sales rate of 72% by 3:00 pm [5]. Clothing - Export Data: In 2025, the cumulative textile and clothing exports were 2.10267 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 1.9%. Among them, textile exports were 1.02047 trillion yuan, an increase of 1%, and clothing exports were 1.0822 trillion yuan, a decrease of 4.4% [6].