Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints of the Report - The prices of various energy and chemical products are in a state of shock. Geopolitical factors, especially the situation in Iran and Venezuela, have a significant impact on the prices of oil - related products. The supply and demand fundamentals of different products also affect their price trends [1][3][4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Research Views - Crude Oil: On Wednesday, the closing price of oil rose, but there was a significant plunge around 4 am, with a maximum drawdown of nearly 5%. The WTI February crude oil contract closed at $62.02/barrel, and the Brent March contract closed at $66.52/barrel. SC2602 closed at 457.0 yuan/barrel, up 8.1 yuan/barrel or 1.80%. Trump's statements on the Gaza conflict and the Iranian situation eased geopolitical concerns, causing large - scale fluctuations in oil prices. The view is that the price will be in a state of shock [1] - Fuel Oil: On Wednesday, the main contract of fuel oil (FU2603) on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 6.07% to 2586 yuan/ton, and the low - sulfur fuel oil main contract (LU2603) rose 2.51% to 3098 yuan/ton. The sharp rise in high - sulfur fuel oil was driven by the geopolitical situation in Iran and its relatively low valuation. The low - sulfur fuel oil market structure is generally stable, and the high - sulfur fuel oil market has some support. The short - term absolute prices of FU and LU may follow the oil price fluctuations, and the view is shock [1][3] - Asphalt: On Wednesday, the main contract of asphalt (BU2602) on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 1.38% to 3168 yuan/ton. This week, the social inventory rate was 23.91%, down 0.28% from last week; the domestic refinery asphalt inventory level was 24.81%, up 0.45% from last week; the domestic asphalt plant operating rate was 32.47%, up 3.41% from last week. The asphalt market is driven by the expectation of tight processing raw materials and reduced refinery supply, and the price is expected to be stable and slightly stronger, with a shock view [3] - Polyester: TA605 closed at 5116 yuan/ton, down 0.47%; EG2605 closed at 3867 yuan/ton, up 1.36%. Multiple PTA and polyester device maintenance plans were announced. In 2025, textile and clothing exports showed a downward trend. Geopolitical risks may push up oil prices. The contradiction between downstream negative feedback and rising oil prices is the focus of the market. The polyester price is expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term, and the ethylene glycol price is expected to fluctuate widely, with a shock view [3][4] - Rubber: On Wednesday, the main contract of Shanghai rubber (RU2605) rose 185 yuan/ton to 16160 yuan/ton, and the NR main contract rose 175 yuan/ton to 13015 yuan/ton. In 2025, China's imports of natural and synthetic rubber increased. The rubber price rebounded under the macro - expectation warming, but the price elasticity decreased after the low - production season, and the inventory - accumulation pressure may suppress the price, with a shock view [5] - Methanol: On Wednesday, the Taicang spot price was 2257 yuan/ton. In January, the arrival volume decreased, but the MTO device load also decreased. The port de - stocking pressure will gradually appear. It is expected that methanol will maintain a bottom - shock state, but the tense situation in Iran may intensify the fluctuations, with a shock view [5] - Polyolefins: On Wednesday, the mainstream price of East China wire drawing was 6430 - 6550 yuan/ton. In January, the supply may decrease slightly due to some temporary maintenance and shutdowns of upstream devices. The demand will recover in the first half of January and decline in the second half. It is expected that polyolefins will still be in a bottom - shock state, with a shock view [5][6] - Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC): On Wednesday, the prices in the East, North, and South China PVC markets showed different trends. The supply is at a high - level shock, and the domestic demand is slowing down. The 05 contract has a large premium. The export policy change will affect the price trend. It is expected that the PVC price will maintain a bottom - shock state, with a shock view [6] Daily Data Monitoring - Provides the basis price information of various energy and chemical products on January 15, 2026, including spot price, futures price, basis, basis rate, price increase and decrease, and the position of the latest basis rate in historical data [7] Market News - The commander - in - chief of the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps stated that they are ready to respond to any misjudgment of the enemy. Trump's envoy announced the second phase of the "20 - point plan" to end the Gaza conflict, and Trump said that the US would observe the development of the Iranian situation before making a decision, not excluding the possibility of military action [9] Chart Analysis - Main Contract Prices: Displays the closing price trends of the main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2022 to 2026, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [11][13][15] - Main Contract Basis: Presents the basis trends of the main contracts of various energy and chemical products, such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [28][31][35] - Inter - period Contract Spreads: Shows the spreads of different contracts of various energy and chemical products, such as fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, etc. [41][43][46] - Inter - variety Spreads: Displays the spreads between different varieties of energy and chemical products, such as crude oil internal and external spreads, fuel oil high - low sulfur spreads, etc. [57][59][61] - Production Profits: Presents the production profit trends of various energy and chemical products, such as LLDPE, PP, PTA, etc. [65][67] Team Member Introduction - Introduces the members of the Everbright Futures Energy and Chemical Research Team, including their positions, educational backgrounds, honors, and research directions [70][71][72]
光大期货能化商品日报-20260115
Guang Da Qi Huo·2026-01-15 03:05