山东主力下游下调接货价，山东烧碱库存累库

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The cancellation of the export tax - rebate for PVC from April 1st may lead to a rush of exports, benefiting contracts before April. However, the overall supply - demand pattern of the PVC market is weak. The supply is abundant, downstream demand is lackluster, and inventory is high. After April, the export is expected to decline significantly, further loosening the supply - demand relationship [3]. - The spot price of caustic soda is stable with a slight decline. Affected by low - price warehouse receipts, the spot price is weak. The supply - demand of caustic soda is also weak, with inventory in Shandong continuing to accumulate. The supply side has a high overall operating rate, and the demand side has a general receiving sentiment and low export orders [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data PVC - Futures Price and Basis: The closing price of the PVC main contract is 4878 yuan/ton (-10); the East China basis is - 238 yuan/ton (-10); the South China basis is - 258 yuan/ton (+0) [1]. - Spot Price: The East China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4640 yuan/ton (-20); the South China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4620 yuan/ton (-10) [1]. - Upstream Production Profit: The blue charcoal price is 750 yuan/ton (+0); the calcium carbide price is 2805 yuan/ton (+0); the calcium carbide profit is - 85 yuan/ton (+0); the gross profit of calcium carbide - based PVC production is - 634 yuan/ton (+80); the gross profit of ethylene - based PVC production is - 192 yuan/ton (+87); the PVC export profit is - 9.0 US dollars/ton (+0.1) [1]. - Inventory and Operating Rate: The in - factory PVC inventory is 32.8 tons (+1.9); the social PVC inventory is 54.6 tons (+2.1); the operating rate of calcium carbide - based PVC is 80.23% (+2.00%); the operating rate of ethylene - based PVC is 75.69% (+0.41%); the overall PVC operating rate is 78.85% (+1.51%) [1]. - Downstream Orders: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises is 90.9 tons (+9.4) [1]. Caustic Soda - Futures Price and Basis: The closing price of the SH main contract is 2093 yuan/ton (-38); the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 7 yuan/ton (+32) [1]. - Spot Price: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 672 yuan/ton (-2); the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 1080 yuan/ton (+0) [2]. - Upstream Production Profit: The single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong is 1075 yuan/ton (-6); the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 587.8 yuan/ton (+33.8); the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) is - 279.20 yuan/ton (-36.25); the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) is 503.49 yuan/ton (-81.01) [2]. - Inventory and Operating Rate: The inventory of liquid caustic soda factories is 49.51 tons (+0.94); the inventory of flake caustic soda factories is 3.08 tons (+0.06); the operating rate of caustic soda is 86.80% (+0.40%) [2]. - Downstream Operating Rate: The operating rate of alumina is 85.74% (+1.07%); the operating rate of printing and dyeing in East China is 60.09% (-0.72%); the operating rate of viscose staple fiber is 88.43% (+3.38%) [2]. Market Analysis PVC - The cancellation of the export tax - rebate from April 1st may lead to a rush of exports, benefiting contracts before April. The overall supply - demand pattern is weak. The supply is abundant, downstream operating rates are mixed with a downward trend, and inventory is high. The cost - side profit has some repair but is still low year - on - year, and the hedging pressure on the futures market is high [3]. Caustic Soda - The spot price is stable with a slight decline, affected by low - price warehouse receipts. The supply - demand is weak, with inventory in Shandong accumulating. The supply side has a high operating rate, and the demand side has a general receiving sentiment and low export orders [3]. Strategy PVC - Single - side Strategy: Oscillation [4]. - Inter - delivery Strategy: Go long on the V03 contract and short on the V05 contract when the spread is low [4]. - Inter - commodity Strategy: None [4]. Caustic Soda - Single - side Strategy: Cautiously bearish [5]. - Inter - delivery Strategy: Go short on the SH03 contract and long on the SH05 contract when the spread is high [5]. - Inter - commodity Strategy: None [5].