现货价格有所松动，02合约估值逐步清晰

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The spot price has loosened, and the valuation of the 02 contract is gradually becoming clear. The cargo volume in December and January is at a relatively high level within the year. The final settlement price of the EC2602 contract is the arithmetic average of the settlement prices on January 26, February 2, and February 9, 2026. Currently, the estimated settlement price for the first phase is around 2700 - 2800 US dollars/FEU (preliminarily estimated to be around 1900 points), and the second phase is estimated to be 2500 - 2600 US dollars/FEU. If the Maersk price in WEEK6 drops to 2200 US dollars/FEU, the final settlement price of the February contract may be around 1700 points [7]. - The policy of canceling the VAT export tax rebate for photovoltaic and other products may disrupt the off - season characteristics of the 04 contract, and the volatility of the 04 contract is expected to increase. In normal years, April and October have the lowest freight rates. The policy may affect the shipping rhythm of related industries and the pricing strategies of shipping companies. Attention should be paid to whether the cargo volume from the Far East to Europe in February and March can increase significantly and whether the actual freight rates will be stronger than in normal years [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Prices - As of January 14, 2026, the total open interest of all contracts of the container shipping index (European line) futures is 62,665 lots, and the single - day trading volume is 54,675 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2608, EC2610, and EC2512 contracts are 1718.00, 1230.50, 1424.10, 1532.60, 1118.00, and 1350.30 respectively [9]. - On January 9, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price was 1719 US dollars/TEU, the SCFI (Shanghai - US West route) price was 2218 US dollars/FEU, and the SCFI (Shanghai - US East) price was 3128 US dollars/FEU. On January 12, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) was 1956.39 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - US West) was 1323.98 points [9]. 3.2 Spot Prices - Online quotes from various shipping companies: For example, Maersk's Shanghai - Rotterdam WEEK4 price is 1695/2730, WEEK5 price is 1510/2420; HPL's mid - January shipment price is 1585/2535, and early - February shipment price is 1585/2535. Different shipping companies and alliances have different price quotes for different shipment periods [1]. 3.3 Container Ship Capacity Supply - Static supply: As of December 31, 2025, 268 container ships have been delivered in 2025, with a total capacity of 2.155 million TEU. Among them, 80 ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU and 13 ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU have been delivered. In terms of delivery expectations, for 12,000 - 16,999 TEU ships, the delivery volume from 2026 - 2029 is 781,200 TEU (53 ships), 944,500 TEU (64 ships), 1.212 million TEU (82 ships), and 415,400 TEU (29 ships) respectively; for over 17,000 TEU ships, the delivery volume from 2026 - 2029 is 210,400 TEU (9 ships), 862,800 TEU (40 ships), 1.5734 million TEU (78 ships), and 1.3755 million TEU (67 ships) respectively. The delivery pressure of ultra - large ships in 2026 is relatively small, and the annual delivery volume of over 17,000 TEU ships in 2027, 2028, and 2029 exceeds 40 ships [3]. - Dynamic supply: The average weekly capacity in January is 328,400 TEU, and the capacities in WEEK3/4/5 are 318,100/361,000/306,000 TEU respectively. The average weekly capacity in February is 277,300 TEU, and the capacities in WEEK6/7/8/9 are 241,600/348,800/288,400/230,700 TEU respectively. The average weekly capacity in March is 281,600 TEU. In February, there are 4 TBNs and 6 blank sailings (3 blank sailings from the OA alliance, 2 from the PA alliance, and 1 from the Gemini alliance), and in March, there are 4 blank sailings and 5 TBNs [4]. 3.4 Supply Chain No specific analysis content in the provided text, only figure references. 3.5 Demand and European Economy - Policy impact: The Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation announced on January 8, 2026, that they will cancel the VAT export tax rebate for photovoltaic and other products. The export tax rebate for photovoltaic products will be completely cancelled from April 1, 2026. For battery products, the tax rebate rate will be reduced from 9% to 6% from April 1 to December 31, 2026, and completely cancelled from January 1, 2027 [5]. - Trade data: In October 2025, China's photovoltaic module exports to the European market were about 7.55 GW, a decrease of about 31% compared with September and an 8% increase compared with the same month in 2024. From January to October, China's total exports of photovoltaic modules to the European market were about 91 GW, an 8% increase compared with the same period last year. Excluding the Netherlands, France ranked second in terms of single - month imports of Chinese photovoltaic modules in October, with imports of about 0.73 GW, a 76% increase compared with the same month in 2024, accounting for 10% of the total European market imports. From January to October, France imported 7.62 GW, ranking second, and Belgium imported 7.56 GW, ranking third [5].