黑色建材日报：市场情绪一般，钢价震荡运行-20260115

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - The market sentiment is average, with steel prices fluctuating. The glass - soda ash market shows cautious sentiment and is running weakly, while the double - silicon market has futures fluctuating weakly and the spot market mostly in a wait - and - see state [1][3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Glass and Soda Ash Market Analysis - Glass: The main contract continued its weak operation yesterday, with a decline of 2.06%. On the spot side, manufacturers' quotes stabilized, production and sales were average, and the spot - futures trading was dull [1] - Soda Ash: The main contract mainly fluctuated yesterday, closing slightly down. On the spot side, quotes fluctuated with the futures, and downstream buyers mainly made replenishment based on rigid demand [1] Supply - Demand and Logic - Glass: The cold - repair of production lines continues, and there is still an expectation of production suspension before the Spring Festival, so the supply contraction pattern remains unchanged. On the demand side, in the context of the traditional off - season, it is weak, and downstream enterprises mostly replenish inventory as needed. The trading volume has declined, but the open interest has increased month - on - month, putting further pressure on the futures price [1] - Soda Ash: The operating rate has increased, and the inventory remains at a high level, with continuous supply pressure. The subsequent release of new production capacity needs attention. The downstream cold - repair expectation is increasing, and enterprises' willingness to make rigid - demand purchases is insufficient. The glass demand is weak, and the medium - to - long - term supply - demand of soda ash remains relatively loose [1] Strategy - Glass: Fluctuating weakly [2] - Soda Ash: Fluctuating weakly [2] Double Silicon (Silicon Manganese and Silicon Iron) Market Analysis - Silicon Manganese: As the black market returns to fundamentals, the trend of silicon manganese fluctuates weakly. On the spot side, the silicon manganese market is running weakly, with the price of 6517 in the northern market at 5630 - 5750 yuan/ton and in the southern market at 5750 - 5850 yuan/ton [3] - Silicon Iron: Silicon iron futures fluctuated and consolidated. On the spot side, the silicon iron market did not change much, and the market was filled with strong wait - and - see sentiment. The ex - factory price of 72 - grade silicon iron natural lumps in the main production areas was 5250 - 5350 yuan/ton in cash and tax - included, and the price of 75 - grade silicon iron was 5750 - 5850 yuan/ton [3] Supply - Demand and Logic - Silicon Manganese: The fundamentals of silicon manganese have improved, but the inventory pressure is still large. With the resumption of production of steel mills and winter - storage replenishment, the demand for silicon manganese is expected to improve. The recent tariff disturbance of South African manganese ore may increase the cost of manganese ore in the later stage [3] - Silicon Iron: The fundamental contradictions of silicon iron are controllable, and enterprises have actively reduced the production load. However, the slowdown in downstream purchases has led to an increase in factory inventory. Considering the resumption of production of steel mills and winter - storage replenishment, the demand for silicon iron is expected to improve. The differential electricity price policy implemented in Shaanxi in the second half of the year has affected the market sentiment, but considering the expected further decline in domestic electricity prices next year and the overall over - capacity of silicon iron, the actual impact is relatively limited [3] Strategy - Silicon Manganese: Fluctuating [4] - Silicon Iron: Fluctuating [4]