纯苯苯乙烯日报：纯苯估值快速修复-20260115

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The geopolitical situation in Iran remains complex, and the recent rebound in crude oil prices provides cost support for pure benzene and styrene. Although the fundamentals of pure benzene have not changed significantly, market funds have started to focus on its undervalued status and are driving up its valuation. The future focus lies on whether the US will reduce tariffs on South Korean pure benzene and whether the increasing operating rates of downstream phenol and styrene can boost the pick - up of pure benzene. Currently, the situation is still weak, with high port inventories, weak downstream pick - up, slow recovery of styrene operating rate, further decline of CPL operating rate to a low level, low aniline operating rate, good performance of rising phenol operating rate, and certain resilience of PC operating rate. The operating rate of adipic acid is also acceptable. Domestic pure benzene prices continue to stay low. - For styrene, the decline of port inventory at the beginning of the week exceeded expectations. On one hand, the recovery rate of styrene operating rate is still slow, with the resumption of Bohua pending and Zhenhai Liande continuing to be shut down, and there are still expectations of inventory reduction in the future. On the other hand, downstream procurement continues, and its sustainability needs to be monitored. The operating rate of EPS performs well, but due to the late Spring Festival this year, the seasonal decline in its operating rate will be late, and there is still pressure for a decline before the Spring Festival with high finished - product inventory. The operating rate of PS is gradually entering the pre - Spring Festival decline stage, with little pressure on finished - product inventory. ABS maintains a low operating rate, and the pressure of finished - product inventory at a high level has slightly eased [3]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs I. Pure Benzene and EB's Basis Structure and Inter - Period Spreads - Pure benzene: The main basis of pure benzene is - 132 yuan/ton (- 3), and the spot - M2 spread in East China is - 190 yuan/ton (+ 5 yuan/ton) [1]. - Styrene: The main basis of styrene is 119 yuan/ton (- 38 yuan/ton) [1]. II. Production Profits and Internal - External Spreads of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene: The processing fee of pure benzene CFR China is 131 US dollars/ton (- 1 US dollar/ton), and the processing fee of pure benzene FOB South Korea is 130 US dollars/ton (+ 0 US dollar/ton). The price difference between the US and South Korea is 168.0 US dollars/ton (+ 21.1 US dollars/ton). The production profits of downstream products vary: caprolactam production profit is - 900 yuan/ton (- 145), phenol - acetone production profit is - 916 yuan/ton (- 140), aniline production profit is 909 yuan/ton (+ 64), and adipic acid production profit is - 918 yuan/ton (- 77) [1]. - Styrene: The non - integrated production profit of styrene is 328 yuan/ton (- 47 yuan/ton), and it is expected to gradually compress [1]. III. Inventories and Operating Rates of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene: The port inventory of pure benzene is 32.40 tons (+ 0.60 tons), and the operating rate data of its downstream products vary. The operating rate of caprolactam is 74.22% (- 1.30%), the operating rate of phenol is 85.50% (+ 4.50%), the operating rate of aniline is 61.31% (+ 1.50%), and the operating rate of adipic acid is 67.60% (- 0.60%) [1]. - Styrene: The port inventory in East China is 100,600 tons (- 31,700 tons), the commercial inventory in East China is 59,900 tons (- 17,400 tons), and it is in the stage of inventory rebuilding. The operating rate is 70.9% (+ 0.7%) [1]. IV. Operating Rates and Production Profits of Styrene Downstream - EPS: The production profit is 37 yuan/ton (- 49 yuan/ton), and the operating rate is 46.72% (+ 3.07%) [2]. - PS: The production profit is - 263 yuan/ton (- 50 yuan/ton), and the operating rate is 58.90% (- 1.50%) [2]. - ABS: The production profit is - 779 yuan/ton (- 87 yuan/ton), and the operating rate is 69.80% (- 0.10%) [2]. V. Operating Rates and Production Profits of Pure Benzene Downstream - Caprolactam: The production profit is - 900 yuan/ton (- 145), and the operating rate is 74.22% (- 1.30%) [1]. - Phenol - acetone: The production profit is - 916 yuan/ton (- 140), and the operating rate of phenol is 85.50% (+ 4.50%) [1]. - Aniline: The production profit is 909 yuan/ton (+ 64), and the operating rate is 61.31% (+ 1.50%) [1]. - Adipic acid: The production profit is - 918 yuan/ton (- 77), and the operating rate is 67.60% (- 0.60%) [1]. Strategy - Unilateral: Consider cautious long - hedging at low levels for EB2602 and BZ2603 [4]. - Basis and inter - period: No relevant strategies provided [4]. - Cross - variety: No relevant strategies provided [4].