养殖油脂产业链日报策略报告-20260115

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Views of the Report - The market anticipates a potential easing of China-Canada trade relations, which has led to a decline in vegetable oil products and dragged down the price of soybean oil. The price trend of palm oil has slowed down due to mixed factors. The inventory of soybean oil has decreased, but the supply at the raw material end is relatively sufficient, and its fundamentals are not strong. It is expected that palm oil will be stronger than soybean oil, which will be stronger than rapeseed oil. Attention should be paid to arbitrage opportunities among oils and fats [1]. - The RMOB report in December was slightly bearish but had limited impact. The export demand for Malaysian palm oil in December exceeded expectations and showed an upward trend. Recent institutional data also indicated a recovery in exports. As the traditional New Year in India approaches in February, the peak-season export demand may gradually become the focus of market trading. In the medium and long term, factors such as the planting area and tree age structure in the main producing regions, as well as Indonesian policies, still pose potential concerns for the supply side this year, while there are still expectations for the biodiesel policy on the demand side. In the short term, the bearish factors may have been exhausted. With the approaching of the consumption peak season, a strategy of buying on dips is currently considered [2]. - The market is still digesting the bearish impact of the USDA supply and demand report in January, and the price of US soybeans has continued to weaken. The trading volume of the basis of domestic distant-month soybean meal has increased significantly, mainly because the oil mills have good crushing profits and have lowered their quotes to lock in profits in advance, which is expected to have a bearish impact on the distant-month soybean meal. The South American soybean harvest is imminent, and the bearish factors for soybean products are expected to continue. Recently, most of the imported soybeans in the auctions have been fully sold, alleviating the previous market concerns about the supply from February to April. With sufficient supply, soybean meal is expected to be more likely to decline than to rise. Attention should be paid to shorting opportunities for soybean meal and soybean No. 2. Selling out-of-the-money call options can also be considered, and a 3 - 5 calendar spread operation can be considered [3]. Summary According to the Directory Part One: Sector Strategy Recommendations 1. Market Analysis | Sector | Variety | Market Logic (Supply and Demand) | Support Level | Resistance Level | Market Judgment | Reference Strategy | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Oilseeds | Soybean No. 1 05 | Farmers and middlemen are holding out for higher prices, but downstream buyers are cautious. The valuation is not low, and there is limited upward momentum. | 4060 - 4080 | 4450 - 4460 | Sideways adjustment | Temporarily wait and see | | Oilseeds | Soybean No. 2 05 | The domestic soybean supply is sufficient, the growth of South American soybeans is in good condition, and soybean auctions have resumed. | 3400 - 3450 | 3540 - 3550 | Sideways adjustment | Temporarily wait and see | | Oils | Soybean Oil 05 | The international oil market is weak, and the domestic soybean oil supply is sufficient. | 7850 - 7900 | 8080 - 8100 | Sideways adjustment | Temporarily wait and see | | Oils | Rapeseed Oil 05 | Australian rapeseeds have not entered the crushing stage yet, and the domestic inventory continues to decline. However, the expected increase in supply and the global bumper harvest still put pressure on prices. | 8650 - 8700 | 9300 - 9350 | Sideways adjustment | Bearish approach | | Oils | Palm Oil 05 | Short-term bearish factors may have been exhausted, and the consumption peak season is approaching. | 8300 - 8350 | 8950 - 9000 | Sideways with an upward bias | Buy on dips | | Protein | Soybean Meal 05 | The supply is sufficient, the demand is still resilient, and the auction of imported soybeans has started. The trading volume of distant-month soybean meal by oil mills has increased significantly. | 2680 - 2700 | 2800 - 2820 | Sideways decline | Bearish operation | | Protein | Rapeseed Meal 05 | The inventory is at a low level and continues to decline, but the fundamentals are still expected to be bearish. | 2270 - 2280 | 2440 - 2450 | Sideways adjustment | Bearish approach | | Energy and By-products | Corn 03 | There is still support from the decline in the supply of high-quality corn. However, the wheat auction and the sales of central reserve corn have limited pressure on the market. The futures price may have support in the short term. | 2160 - 2170 | 2330 - 2350 | Supported | Bullish approach | | Energy and By-products | Starch 03 | It follows the cost of corn and has support. | 2450 - 2460 | 2620 - 2640 | Supported | Bullish approach | | Livestock | Live Hogs 03 | Feed prices have stopped falling and rebounded, and the expectation of capacity reduction is strengthening. | 11000 - 11300 | 12500 - 12800 | Bottom-finding in a sideways range | Lightly go long on a trial basis | | Livestock | Eggs 05 | The number of newly opened laying hens has decreased, and there is an expectation of a consumption peak season. | 3300 - 3400 | 3650 - 3700 | Bottom-finding in a sideways range | Buy on dips | [10] 2. Commodity Arbitrage | Sector | Spread Type | Current Value | Previous Value | Change | Reference Strategy | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Oilseeds | Soybean No. 1 3 - 5 | -37 | -34 | -3 | Wait and see | | Oilseeds | Soybean No. 2 3 - 5 | 325 | 304 | 21 | Calendar spread (buy near and sell far) | | Oils | Soybean Oil 5 - 9 | 138 | 144 | -6 | Wait and see | | Oils | Rapeseed Oil 5 - 9 | 19 | 31 | -12 | Wait and see | | Oils | Palm Oil 1 - 5 | -68 | -98 | 30 | Wait and see | | Protein | Soybean Meal 3 - 5 | 358 | 356 | 2 | Calendar spread (buy near and sell far) | | Protein | Rapeseed Meal 3 - 5 | 93 | 91 | 2 | Wait and see | | Energy and By-products | Corn 3 - 5 | -3 | 7 | -10 | Short on rallies | | Energy and By-products | Starch 3 - 5 | -37 | -30 | -7 | Wait and see | | Livestock | Live Hogs 3 - 5 | -250 | -375 | 125 | Wait and see | | Livestock | Eggs 3 - 5 | -553 | -571 | 18 | Wait and see | | Oils | 05 Soybean Oil - Palm Oil | -748 | -792 | 44 | Temporarily wait and see | | Oils | 05 Rapeseed Oil - Soybean Oil | 949 | 1031 | -82 | Bearish operation | | Oils | 05 Rapeseed Oil - Palm Oil | 207 | 221 | -14 | Bearish operation | | Protein | 05 Soybean Meal - Rapeseed Meal | 462 | 447 | 15 | Temporarily wait and see | | Oil - Meal Ratio | 05 Soybean Oil - Meal Ratio | 2.91 | 2.89 | 0.02 | Temporarily wait and see | | Oil - Meal Ratio | 05 Rapeseed Oil - Meal Ratio | 3.91 | 3.90 | 0.01 | Temporarily wait and see | | Energy and By-products | 05 Corn - Starch | -305 | -314 | 9 | Temporarily wait and see | [11][12] 3. Basis and Spot - Futures Strategies | Sector | Variety | Spot Price | Change | Basis of the Main Contract | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Oilseeds | Soybean No. 1 | 4080 | 4080 | -243 | 94 | | Oilseeds | Soybean No. 2 | 3980 | 3980 | 477 | 19 | | Oilseeds | Peanuts | 7400 | 7400 | -342 | 80 | | Oils | Soybean Oil | 8560 | 8560 | 570 | 6 | | Oils | Rapeseed Oil | 9750 | -100 | 801 | -35 | | Oils | Palm Oil | 8850 | -50 | 102 | -20 | | Protein | Soybean Meal | 3120 | -20 | 429 | 429 | | Protein | Rapeseed Meal | 2370 | -20 | 81 | 5 | | Energy and By-products | Corn | 2310 | 10 | 47 | 11 | | Energy and By-products | Starch | 2610 | 0 | 85 | 13 | | Livestock | Live Hogs | 12.74 (yuan/kg) | 0.01 (yuan/kg) | 990 | -215 | | Livestock | Eggs | 3.16 (yuan/jin) | 0.05 (yuan/jin) | 593 | 33 | [13] Part Two: Key Data Tracking Table 1. Oils and Oilseeds (1) Daily Data - The table shows the import cost data of soybeans, rapeseeds, and palm oil from different origins and shipping dates, including the CNF price, import duty-paid price, and the cost of soybean meal when the crushing profit is zero [15][16]. (2) Weekly Data | Variety | Inventory (Change) | Operating Rate | | --- | --- | --- | | Soybeans | Port soybeans: 837.25 (-4.86) | 53.00% | | Soybean Meal | Oil mill soybean meal: 104.40 (-12.62) | 3.00% | | Soybean Oil | Port soybean oil: 98.00 (-4.10) | - | | Rapeseeds | Coastal oil mill rapeseeds: 6.00 (6.00); Coastal rapeseed meal: 0.00 (0.00); East China commercial rapeseed oil: 26.70 (0.00) | 28.03% (0.00%) | | Palm Oil | Inventory: 74 (0) | - | | Peanuts | Peanut inventory: 129285 (-490); Peanut oil inventory: 48080 (1162) | 43.51% (5.78%) | [17][18] 2. Feed (1) Daily Data The table shows the import cost data of corn from different countries and months, including the CNF price and the import duty-paid cost [18]. (2) Weekly Data | Indicator Name | Current Value | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Deep - processing enterprise corn consumption (10,000 tons) | 123.47 | -1.29 | -3.80 | | Deep - processing enterprise corn inventory (10,000 tons) | 354.00 | 4.60 | -240.70 | | Starch enterprise operating rate (%) | 59.37 | -0.49 | -7.65 | | Starch enterprise inventory (10,000 tons) | 112.50 | 0.20 | 112.50 | | Grain sales progress of farmers at the grass - roots level (%) | 50.00 | 47.00 | 2.00 | [19] 3. Livestock - The table shows the daily spot prices of live hogs and eggs in different regions, as well as the weekly key data of live hogs and eggs, including prices, costs, profits, and other indicators [19][20][21][22] Part Three: Fundamental Tracking Charts - The report includes a series of fundamental tracking charts for the livestock (live hogs and eggs), oils and oilseeds, and feed sectors, covering aspects such as prices, inventories, operating rates, and spreads [23][24][25] Part Four: Options Situation of Feed, Livestock, and Oils - The report shows the historical volatility of various products such as rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, and peanuts, as well as the trading volume, open interest, and put - call ratio of corn options [95][96][97] Part Five: Warehouse Receipt Situation of Feed, Livestock, and Oils - The report shows the warehouse receipt situation of various products such as rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, peanuts, corn, corn starch, live hogs, and eggs, as well as the open interest of the live hog index and the egg index [101][102][103]