蛋白数据日报-20260115

Report Summary 1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The USDA's January supply - demand report maintained the 2025/26 US soybean yield at 53 bushels per acre, higher than market expectations, further reduced US soybean exports to 1.575 billion bushels, and increased the 2025/26 ending inventory estimate to 350 million bushels, with the US soybean stock - to - consumption ratio rising to 8.2%. The report also expected Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production to be 178 million tons, higher than market expectations, kept Argentina's soybean production unchanged, and raised the global soybean ending inventory to 124.1 million tons, all of which were bearish. The US soybean quarterly inventory report showed that the December quarterly inventory was 3.29 billion bushels, higher than market expectations, also bearish [10]. - In the short term, there is no obvious weather - driven speculation. With Brazil starting the harvest, the impact of the January harvest pressure on Brazil's CNF premiums should be monitored. The USDA report is bearish, and the harvest pressure under the South American bumper harvest is expected to be gradually reflected in Brazil's CNF premiums. The domestic market is expected to fluctuate weakly [10]. - In the first quarter, the concentrated ownership of imported soybeans in China brings structural issues, which may change the downstream sentiment before the Spring Festival, supporting the pre - holiday spot price trend. However, the uncertainty of China's soybean selling policy may affect the March - May spread [10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Basis Data - On January 14th, the basis of the soybean meal main contract (Zhangjiagang) in Dalian was 469, down 10. The 43% soybean meal spot basis in Tianjin was 429, down 10; in Rizhao was 369, down 30; in Zhangjiagang was 369, down 10; in Dongguan was 349, down 10; in Zhanjiang was 419; in Fangchenggang was 409, down 10. The rapeseed meal spot basis in Guangdong was 92. M3 - 5 was 358, up 2; RM5 - 9 was - 67, down 3 [4]. 3.2. Inventory Data - The report presents data on China's port soybean inventory, feed enterprise soybean meal inventory days, and the inventory of major oil mills' soybean meal in China from 2020 - 2026 [5][6][7]. 3.3.开机和压榨情况 (Operation and Pressing Situation) - The report shows data on the operating rate and soybean pressing volume of major oil mills in China from 2020 - 2026, as well as downstream delivery volume data from 2019 - 2026 [8][9]. 3.4. Spread and International Data - The spot spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in Guangdong was 652, and the futures spread of the main contract was 462. The price difference data also includes the 2025 soybean CNF premium trend chart and the 2025 imported soybean futures gross profit. The exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB was 6.9421, up 5, and the futures crushing profit was 179 yuan/ton [12].