生鲜软商品板块日度策略报告-20260115

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The soft - commodity and fresh - produce sectors have different market logics and trading strategies. For example, Zheng sugar has limited downside space and is recommended for light - position short - term long positions; pulp has limited upside space and is advised to go short on rallies [3]. - In the fresh - produce sector, apples are expected to have a slow upward trend in the overall price center, and long positions can be held cautiously; jujubes are in a situation of supply and demand both being strong, and different trading strategies are proposed according to different positions [7][9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendation - Fresh - produce Futures: For Apple 2605, it is recommended to hold long positions cautiously, with a support range of 8800 - 8900 and a pressure range of 11000 - 11500. For Jujube 2605, short - term buying on dips is recommended, with a support range of 8700 - 9000 and a pressure range of 9500 - 9800 [17]. - Soft - commodity Futures: For Sugar 2605, light - position short - term long positions are recommended, with a support range of 5200 - 5230 and a pressure range of 5350 - 5380. For Pulp 2605, short - position operations within the range are recommended, with a support range of 5300 - 5350 and a pressure range of 5550 - 5700. For Double - offset Paper 2605, range operations are recommended, with a support range of 4000 - 4100 and a pressure range of 4300 - 4350. For Cotton 2605, long positions can be held cautiously, with a support range of 13500 - 13600 and a pressure range of 15400 - 15500 [17]. 3.2 Second Part: Market News Changes - Apple Market: In November 2025, the export volume of fresh apples increased. As of January 8, 2026, the inventory in the main producing areas decreased year - on - year. The spot price in Shandong and Shaanxi remained stable, and the sales area was also stable [18]. - Jujube Market: As of January 11, the sample - point inventory decreased month - on - month. The acquisition in the producing areas was basically over, and the market was expected to enter a peak sales period with the approach of the festival [21]. - Sugar Market: India, Thailand, and Brazil have different production and export situations. The global sugar supply is relatively sufficient, and the international sugar price is expected to be weak [22]. - Pulp Market: The price of needle and broad - leaf pulp increased, and the supply pressure gradually eased, but the upward space was limited due to the weak downstream market [3]. - Double - offset Paper Market: The operating rate of double - offset paper enterprises increased, the inventory decreased, but the overall demand was still under pressure [4]. - Cotton Market: In December 2025, the export volume of Bangladeshi clothing and Chinese textiles and clothing had different year - on - year and month - on - month changes [30]. 3.3 Third Part: Market Review - Futures Market Review: The closing prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Apple 2605, Jujube 2605, Sugar 2605, Pulp 2605, and Cotton 2605 are provided [31]. - Spot Market Review: The spot prices, month - on - month changes, and year - on - year changes of apples, jujubes, sugar, pulp, double - offset paper, and cotton are presented [36]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Basis Situation No specific content summary provided in the given text, only relevant figure references. 3.5 Fifth Part: Inter - month Spread Situation - Apple 5 - 10 spread is expected to be oscillating strongly, and buying on dips is recommended. - Jujube 9 - 1 spread is expected to be range - oscillating, and it is recommended to wait and see. - Sugar 5 - 9 spread is expected to be oscillating, and it is recommended to wait and see. - Cotton 5 - 9 spread is expected to be oscillating weakly, and selling on rallies is recommended [55]. 3.6 Sixth Part: Futures Position Situation No specific content summary provided in the given text, only relevant figure references. 3.7 Seventh Part: Futures Warehouse Receipt Situation - The warehouse receipt quantities, month - on - month changes, and year - on - year changes of apples, jujubes, sugar, pulp, and cotton are given [84]. 3.8 Eighth Part: Option - related Data No specific content summary provided in the given text, only relevant figure references.