厂内库存去库，现货成交火爆

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Bullish with fluctuations [3] - Inter - period: Go long on UR05 - 09 spread when it is low [3] - Inter - variety: None [3] Core View - The spot market for urea is booming, with factory inventories being depleted. In January, supply increased as some gas - based and technologically - upgraded enterprises resumed production. Demand improved from both agricultural and industrial sectors, including winter and green - turning fertilizer purchases, ongoing light - storage procurement, increased compound fertilizer production, and restarted melamine plants. The international urea market sentiment was boosted by the Indian NFL's import tender. Continued attention should be paid to export trends, national light - storage rhythms, and the persistence of spot purchasing sentiment [1][2] Summary by Directory 1. Urea Basis Structure - Relevant figures include Shandong urea small - particle market price, Henan urea small - particle market price, Shandong main - contract basis, Henan main - contract basis, urea main - continuous contract price, 1 - 5 spread, 5 - 9 spread, and 9 - 1 spread [5][6] 2. Urea Output - Relevant figures are urea weekly output and urea plant maintenance loss [5][6] 3. Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - Relevant figures cover production cost, spot production profit, futures - based production profit, national capacity utilization rate, coal - based capacity utilization rate, and gas - based capacity utilization rate [5][6] 4. Urea Overseas Prices and Export Profits - Relevant figures include FOB price of small - particle urea in the Baltic Sea, CFR price of large - particle urea in Southeast Asia, FOB price of small - particle urea in China, CFR price of large - particle urea in China, the difference between FOB price of small - particle urea in the Baltic Sea and FOB price of small - particle urea in China minus 30, the difference between CFR price of large - particle urea in Southeast Asia and FOB price of small - particle urea in China, urea export profit, and futures - based export profit [5][6] 5. Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - Relevant figures are compound fertilizer operating rate, melamine operating rate, and pending order days [5][6] 6. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Relevant figures include upstream factory inventory, port inventory, raw material inventory days of downstream urea manufacturers in Hebei, futures warehouse receipts, main - contract open interest, and main - contract trading volume [5][6]