基本面矛盾相对有限，铅价仍陷震荡格局

Report Industry Investment Rating - Absolute price: Neutral [4] Core View of the Report - The fundamental contradictions in the lead market are relatively limited, and the lead price remains in a volatile pattern. The downstream of the lead industry may see a slight increase in开工 after the New Year's Day, but if orders remain sluggish, some enterprises may reduce production or arrange holidays. The supply of lead ore is relatively tight, and processing fees are still at a low level. Therefore, the lead price is expected to fluctuate between 16,980 yuan/ton and 17,800 yuan/ton [1][4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot - On January 14, 2026, the LME lead spot premium was -$43.81/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price increased by 50 yuan/ton to 17,225 yuan/ton. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium changed by -25 yuan/ton to 20.00 yuan/ton. The SMM Guangdong lead spot price increased by 50 yuan/ton to 17,275 yuan/ton. The SMM Henan lead spot price increased by 50 yuan/ton to 17,225 yuan/ton. The SMM Tianjin lead spot premium changed by 50 yuan/ton to 17,250 yuan/ton. The lead scrap price difference remained unchanged at -150 yuan/ton. The price of waste electric vehicle batteries decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 10,050 yuan/ton. The price of waste white shells decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 10,175 yuan/ton. The price of waste black shells decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 10,375 yuan/ton [1] Futures - On January 14, 2026, the main SHFE lead contract opened at 17,375 yuan/ton and closed at 17,385 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 48,180 lots, an increase of 14,851 lots from the previous trading day. The open interest was 70,437 lots, an increase of 35,451 lots from the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated between 17,330 yuan/ton and 17,485 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main SHFE lead contract opened at 17,455 yuan/ton and closed at 17,620 yuan/ton, up 1.18% from the afternoon close. The SMM1 lead price increased by 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Lead consumption was generally weak, the de - stocking of smelter lead ingot inventories was limited, and the spot market was dominated by a wait - and - see attitude, resulting in light trading [2] Inventory - On January 14, 2026, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 26,000 tons, an increase of 6,300 tons from the same period last week. As of January 14, the LME lead inventory was 215,200 tons, a decrease of 3,725 tons from the previous trading day [3] Strategy - Given the current situation, operations can be carried out by buying and selling hedges within the range of 16,980 yuan/ton to 17,800 yuan/ton [4]