中东局势持续恶化，贵金属延续强势

Market Analysis - The Fed's Beige Book shows that 8 out of 12 Fed districts reported slight to moderate economic growth, 3 reported no change, and 1 reported a slight decline, an improvement from the previous three reporting periods [1]. - Most banks reported slight to moderate growth in consumer spending during this period, mainly due to the holiday shopping season [1]. - Geopolitically, the US State Department urged US citizens to leave Iran immediately, the third such alert in five days, and the US is withdrawing some personnel from major bases in the Middle East. Iran warned it is in the highest state of combat readiness and will attack US military bases if the US strikes [1]. Futures Quotes and Trading Volume - On January 14, 2026, the Shanghai Gold main contract opened at 1028.82 yuan/gram and closed at 1040.62 yuan/gram, up 1.31% from the previous trading day's close, with a trading volume of 41087 lots and an open interest of 129725 lots. The night - session closed at 1039.72 yuan/gram, down 0.09% from the afternoon close [2]. - On the same day, the Shanghai Silver main contract opened at 21431.00 yuan/kg and closed at 22763.00 yuan/kg, up 8.37% from the previous trading day's close, with a trading volume of 1276402 lots and an open interest of 344654 lots. The night - session closed at 23270 yuan/kg, up 2.23% from the afternoon close [2]. US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On January 14, 2026, the US 10 - year Treasury yield closed at 4.126%, down 4.9 BP from the previous trading day, and the 10 - year to 2 - year spread was 0.623%, down 2.4 BP from the previous trading day [3]. Changes in SHFE Gold and Silver Positions and Trading Volume - On January 14, 2026, in the Au2602 contract, long positions decreased by 6569 lots and short positions decreased by 297 lots compared to the previous day. The total trading volume of Shanghai Gold contracts was 401839 lots, up 8.37% from the previous trading day [4]. - In the Ag2604 contract, long positions increased by 4556 lots and short positions decreased by 411 lots. The total trading volume of silver contracts was 2724888 lots, up 14.36% from the previous trading day [4]. Precious Metal ETF Position Tracking - The gold ETF position was 1074.23 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day, and the silver ETF position was 16321 tons, down 27 tons from the previous trading day [5]. Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On January 14, 2026, the domestic gold premium was - 2.57 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was - 880.39 yuan/kg [6]. - The price ratio of the main SHFE gold and silver contracts was about 45.72, down 6.52% from the previous trading day, and the overseas gold - silver ratio was 53.40, down 2.14% from the previous trading day [6]. Fundamental Analysis - On January 14, 2026, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T + d market was 66216 kg, up 14.16% from the previous trading day, and the trading volume of silver was 812282 kg, up 15.99% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 11872 kg, and the silver delivery volume was 450 kg [7]. Strategy - Gold: Cautiously bullish. Market risk sentiment is rising, increasing the demand for gold investment. The price of gold is expected to be mainly oscillating and strengthening, with the Au2602 contract oscillating between 1020 yuan/gram and 1050 yuan/gram [8]. - Silver: Cautiously bullish. Silver prices are rising with gold, and due to the recovery of risk sentiment, silver is slightly stronger than gold, and the gold - silver ratio is expected to continue to narrow. The price of silver is also expected to maintain an oscillating and strengthening pattern, with the Ag2604 contract oscillating between 22800 yuan/kg and 24000 yuan/kg [8]. - Arbitrage: Short the gold - silver ratio at high levels [9]. - Options: Put on hold [9]