聚烯烃基差延续走强

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - PE prices continue to rise due to factors such as increased cost support from rising oil prices, improved sentiment, and a slight improvement in the supply - demand fundamentals. However, the demand support is limited, and there is still pressure to reduce inventory under high supply. The price is expected to remain strong in the short - term, and attention should be paid to macro guidance and the inventory reduction process [2]. - PP prices also rebound due to improved market sentiment, expected supply reduction, and cost support. The supply - demand structure has improved slightly, but the demand is still in the off - season. The sustainability of the short - term rebound depends on the scale of supply - side maintenance, and attention should be paid to the inventory reduction pressure [3]. - For trading strategies, it is recommended to cautiously go long on LLDPE and PP for hedging. The market is expected to remain strong in the short - term, and attention should be paid to upstream maintenance dynamics [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Market News and Important Data - Price and Basis: The closing price of the L main contract is 6820 yuan/ton (+54), and the PP main contract is 6590 yuan/ton (+45). LL spot prices in North and East China are 6750 yuan/ton (+80) and 6880 yuan/ton (+130) respectively, and PP spot price in East China is 6420 yuan/ton (+170). LL basis in North China is - 70 yuan/ton (+26), LL basis in East China is 60 yuan/ton (+76), and PP basis in East China is - 170 yuan/ton (+125) [1]. - Upstream Supply: PE operating rate is 83.7% (+0.4%), and PP operating rate is 75.5% (-1.3%) [1]. - Production Profit: PE oil - based production profit is 84.0 yuan/ton (-20.8), PP oil - based production profit is - 656.0 yuan/ton (-20.8), and PDH - based PP production profit is - 815.3 yuan/ton (-93.3) [1]. - Imports and Exports: LL import profit is 258.8 yuan/ton (+98.6), PP import profit is - 409.1 yuan/ton (-43.4), and PP export profit is - 36.3 US dollars/ton (+0.2) [1]. - Downstream Demand: PE downstream agricultural film operating rate is 37.9% (-1.1%), PE downstream packaging film operating rate is 49.0% (+0.6%), PP downstream woven operating rate is 42.6% (-0.3%), and PP downstream BOPP film operating rate is 63.2% (+0.0%) [1]. 3.2 Market Analysis - PE: Cost support increases with rising oil prices, and the supply - demand fundamentals improve slightly. Supply decreases due to more short - term maintenance of existing devices, and the production of standard products increases. Demand improves as downstream factories increase restocking, but the demand is still in the off - season. Inventory is transferred from upstream to middle - stream, but there is still pressure to reduce inventory [2]. - PP: The price rebounds due to improved sentiment, expected supply reduction, and cost support. Supply pressure eases in the short - term due to more temporary maintenance, and there are strong expectations for future PDH device maintenance. Demand improves as downstream restocking increases, but it is still in the off - season. Inventory is transferred from upstream to middle - stream, and the overall inventory level is still high [3]. 3.3 Strategy - Unilateral: Cautiously go long on LLDPE and PP for hedging. The market may continue to fluctuate strongly in the short - term, and attention should be paid to upstream maintenance dynamics [4]. - Inter - period: No strategy provided [4]. - Inter - variety: No strategy provided [4].