有色金属日度策略-20260115

Report Information - Authors: Yang Lina, Hu Bin, Liang Haikuan [1] - Date: January 14, 2026 [2] - Investment Advisory License: Beijing Securities Regulatory Commission Permit [2012] No. 75 [2] Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The overall trend of non - ferrous metals is strong but slightly differentiated. In a relatively loose monetary environment, driven by factors such as AI technology development, increased attention to the key mineral supply chain, and enhanced supply uncertainties of strategic resources due to rising nationalism in resource - rich countries and geopolitical disturbances, the sector remains strong, though there are fluctuations in market sentiment. The lower - than - expected US CPI data boosts the expectation of a rate cut in April, and the market continues to show relatively warm fluctuations [12]. - China's foreign trade is accelerating its recovery. China's exports denominated in US dollars increased by 6.6% year - on - year in December, and imports increased by 5.7% year - on - year. The China Association of Automobile Manufacturers expects that the sales volume of new energy vehicles in 2026 is expected to reach 19 million, a year - on - year increase of 15.2%, and automobile exports are expected to reach 7.4 million, a year - on - year increase of 4.3% [12]. - Overseas data shows that the number of new non - farm jobs in the US in December was lower than expected, but the unemployment rate decreased. Traders almost eliminated their bets on a rate cut in January. The preliminary consumer confidence index of the University of Michigan in January reached a four - month high. The core CPI growth rate in December was lower than expected, and traders increased their bets on a mid - year rate cut [12]. Summary by Directory Part I: Non - ferrous Metals Operating Logic and Investment Recommendations - Macro Logic: The non - ferrous metals sector is generally strong with a slightly differentiated trend. The sector remains strong under the influence of a loose monetary environment, AI development, and geopolitical factors. The lower - than - expected US CPI boosts the April rate - cut expectation. China's foreign trade recovers, and the new energy vehicle and automobile export markets are promising. Overseas, the US employment and inflation data affect market rate - cut expectations [12]. - Investment Recommendations for Each Metal - Copper: Try to gradually buy on dips. The short - term upper pressure range is around 108,000 - 110,000 yuan/ton, and the lower support range is around 98,000 - 99,000 yuan/ton. Consider buying out - of - the - money long - term call options [4]. - Zinc: Follow the overall sector trend. The upper pressure is around 24,500 - 24,800, and the short - term lower support is around 23,600 - 23,800 [5]. - Aluminum Industry Chain: For aluminum, adopt a bullish approach. The upper pressure range is 25,000 - 27,000, and the lower support range is 22,000 - 22,300. For alumina, maintain a short - selling strategy on rallies. The upper pressure range is 2,900 - 3,000, and the lower support range is 2,000 - 2,200. For recycled aluminum alloy, adopt a bullish approach. The upper pressure range is 24,000 - 26,000, and the lower support range is 21,000 - 21,500 [6]. - Tin: Adopt a bullish approach before the capital enthusiasm fades. The upper pressure range is 430,000 - 450,000, and the lower support range is 330,000 - 350,000. Consider buying out - of - the - money put options for protection [7]. - Lead: The price is expected to remain in an overall oscillatory pattern. The short - term lower support is around 17,000 - 17,200, and the upper resistance is around 17,600 - 17,800 [8]. - Nickel and Stainless Steel: For nickel, trade in short - term bands with light positions. The upper resistance is around 146,000 - 150,000 yuan, and the lower support is around 137,000 - 138,000 yuan. For stainless steel, the lower support is around 13,300 - 13,400, and the upper resistance is around 13,800 - 14,200 [9]. Part II: Non - ferrous Metals Market Review | Variety | Closing Price | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | | Copper | 104,120 | 1.79% | | Zinc | 24,475 | 0.99% | | Aluminum | 24,595 | 0.90% | | Alumina | 2,800 | 0.72% | | Tin | 413,170 | 8.92% | | Lead | 17,385 | 0.43% | | Nickel | 140,940 | 1.80% | | Stainless Steel | 13,925 | 0.98% | | Cast Aluminum Alloy | 23,380 | 0.93% | [19] Part III: Non - ferrous Metals Position Analysis | Variety | Change Rate | Net Long - Short Strength | Net Long - Short Position Difference | Net Long Change | Net Short Change | Influencing Factors | Sector | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Silver (AG2604) | 8.03% | Strong long - position by main players | 28,858 | 8,527 | 2,518 | Long - position increase by main players | Non - ferrous Metals, Precious Metals and New Energy | | Shanghai Tin (SN2602) | 8.00% | Strong short - position by main players | - 1,587 | 3,312 | 2,168 | Long - position increase by main players | Non - ferrous Metals, Precious Metals and New Energy | | Platinum (PT2606) | 3.67% | Strong short - position by main players | - 6,164 | - 51 | 505 | Non - main capital influence | Non - ferrous Metals, Precious Metals and New Energy | | Shanghai Gold (AU2602) | 1.07% | Strong long - position by main players | 44,062 | 5,965 | 269 | Non - main capital influence | Non - ferrous Metals, Precious Metals and New Energy | | Shanghai Copper (CU2603) | 0.85% | Strong short - position by main players | - 12,022 | 10,878 | 10,384 | Long - position increase by main players | Non - ferrous Metals, Precious Metals and New Energy | | Shanghai Zinc (ZN2603) | 0.51% | Strong long - position by main players | 4,889 | 4,248 | 4,101 | Long - position increase by main players | Non - ferrous Metals, Precious Metals and New Energy | | Industrial Silicon (SI2605) | 0.34% | Strong short - position by main players | - 15,966 | 2,170 | - 8,250 | Short - position decrease by main players | Non - ferrous Metals, Precious Metals and New Energy | | Shanghai Aluminum (AL2603) | - 0.06% | Strong short - position by main players | - 27,898 | 2,269 | - 4,016 | Non - main capital influence | Non - ferrous Metals, Precious Metals and New Energy | | Shanghai Nickel (NI2602) | - 0.11% | Strong short - position by main players | - 17,247 | 1,418 | - 4,872 | Non - main capital influence | Non - ferrous Metals, Precious Metals and New Energy | | Shanghai Lead (PB2603) | - 0.17% | Strong long - position by main players | 2,859 | 3,006 | 3,648 | Short - position increase by main players | Non - ferrous Metals, Precious Metals and New Energy | | Aluminum Alloy (AD2603) | - 0.21% | Strong short - position by main players | - 376 | 20 | 238 | Short - position increase by main players | Non - ferrous Metals, Precious Metals and New Energy | | Alumina (AO2605) | - 0.28% | Strong short - position by main players | - 123,283 | 8,091 | - 22,032 | Non - main capital influence | Non - ferrous Metals, Precious Metals and New Energy | | Polysilicon (PS2605) | - 1.46% | Strong long - position by main players | 242 | 188 | - 892 | Non - main capital influence | Non - ferrous Metals, Precious Metals and New Energy | | Lithium Carbonate (LC2605) | - 3.53% | Strong short - position by main players | - 93,289 | - 740 | 12,009 | Short - position increase by main players | Non - ferrous Metals, Precious Metals and New Energy | [22] Part IV: Non - ferrous Metals Spot Market The report provides the spot prices and change rates of various non - ferrous metals such as copper, zinc, aluminum, alumina, nickel, stainless steel, tin, lead, and cast aluminum alloy [23]. Part V: Non - ferrous Metals Industry Chain The report includes various charts related to the industry chain of each metal, such as inventory changes, processing fees, and price trends [25][26][29] Part VI: Non - ferrous Metals Arbitrage The report presents charts related to the arbitrage of each metal, including price ratios and basis spreads [51][53][55] Part VII: Non - ferrous Metals Options The report provides charts related to the options of each metal, such as historical volatility, implied volatility, and trading volume and open interest [67][69][71]