每日投资策略-20260115

Macro Analysis - China's economy is facing challenges in rebalancing, with a projected 5.5% growth in goods exports for 2025, driven by strengthened trade relations with non-US regions and the restructuring of global supply chains [2] - The trade surplus has reached a record $1.19 trillion, accounting for 6.1% of GDP, while imports have stagnated due to weak domestic demand and overcapacity [2] - GDP growth has slowed significantly since Q3 2025, with expectations of further decline in Q1 2026, prompting potential new stimulus measures from policymakers [2] Industry Analysis - The global large model market is expected to reach $206.5 billion by 2029, with a CAGR of 80.7% from 2024 to 2029, driven by the commercialization of AI applications [6] - The AI application market is projected to grow to $151.5 billion by 2029, with a CAGR of 84.4% [6] - Key players in the C-end AI application space include ByteDance, Tencent, and Alibaba, with specific focus areas such as AI general assistants and visual generation [6] Company Analysis - Q Technology (1478 HK) has reported a significant earnings increase of 400-450% for FY25, exceeding market expectations, primarily driven by growth in non-mobile businesses and camera module upgrades [7] - The non-mobile business is expected to be the main growth driver, with projected revenue growth of 42% and 30% for FY26E and FY27E, respectively [7] - The new target price for Q Technology is set at HKD 13.18, based on a 17x P/E ratio for FY26E, reflecting the challenges in the smartphone industry [7]