有色商品日报（2026年1月15日）-20260115

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Copper: Overnight, LME copper first declined and then rose, while domestic copper fluctuated widely. The import of refined copper in China remained at a loss. The US economy showed signs of improvement, with retail sales and housing sales data being positive. LME, Comex, SHFE, and BC copper inventories all increased. High copper prices led to more cautious downstream procurement, and the export window gradually opened, which may be beneficial for export demand in Q1. The US Supreme Court's non - decision on the Trump tariff policy case briefly alleviated market concerns. At present, there are signs of weakening fundamentals under high copper prices, but market sentiment remains strong. A prudent and optimistic view is recommended [1]. - Aluminum: Overnight, alumina, Shanghai aluminum, and aluminum alloy all fluctuated weakly. The price of SMM alumina declined, and the spot discount of aluminum ingots widened. Alumina plants have high ore reserves, with low short - term premium procurement sentiment and decreasing costs. Alumina production continued to increase after environmental control ended, and with imports, inventories at manufacturers and downstream continued to accumulate. The logic of spot prices converging to futures prices continued. The profit from Xinjiang's warehouse delivery may put pressure on the market. After the end of environmental control and the cancellation of export tax rebates, photovoltaic enterprises rushed to export, and the start - up of the processing end is expected to remain resilient, slightly alleviating the pressure of aluminum ingot inventory accumulation. The macro - micro divergence is gradually narrowing, and the over - heating boost is being rationally corrected. Aluminum prices continue to be high, and the spot discount continues to narrow [1][2]. - Nickel: Overnight, LME nickel rose 6.73% and Shanghai nickel rose 5.62%. LME and SHFE inventories increased. The Indonesian government plans to reduce the nickel ore production target in 2026. As prices rise rapidly, product prices in all links of the industrial chain have strengthened, and the production of primary nickel has increased significantly. The tightening of Indonesia's nickel ore quota policy may lead to a global primary nickel supply - demand gap, stimulating nickel prices to strengthen. Short - term attention is recommended to the opportunity of going long near the cost line [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - Copper: Overnight, LME copper first declined and then rose, with domestic wide - range fluctuations. The import of refined copper in China was at a loss. US economic data was positive, and copper inventories in multiple markets increased. High copper prices made downstream procurement cautious, and the export window opened. The non - decision on the tariff policy case alleviated concerns. Fundamentals are weakening under high prices, but market sentiment is strong [1]. - Aluminum: Overnight, alumina, Shanghai aluminum, and aluminum alloy fluctuated weakly. Alumina prices declined, and the spot discount of aluminum ingots widened. Ore reserves are high, costs are decreasing, and inventories are accumulating. The end of environmental control and export - related policies affect the market, and the macro - micro divergence is narrowing [1][2]. - Nickel: Overnight, LME and Shanghai nickel prices rose significantly. Inventories increased. Indonesia plans to reduce nickel ore production. The industrial chain product prices strengthened, and the tightening of the quota policy may cause a supply - demand gap [2]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - Copper: On January 14, 2026, the price of flat - water copper increased by 1360 yuan/ton compared to the previous day, and the premium increased by 35 yuan/ton. The price of scrap copper and the refined - scrap price difference both increased. LME inventory remained unchanged, while SHFE and COMEX inventories increased. The social inventory increased by 20,000 tons. The active contract's import loss decreased [3]. - Lead: The average price of 1 lead increased by 10 yuan/ton, and the prices of related lead products also changed slightly. LME inventory remained unchanged, while SHFE inventory increased [3]. - Aluminum: On January 14, 2026, the prices of aluminum in Wuxi and Nanhai increased, and the spot discount widened. The prices of raw materials such as alumina and pre - baked anodes changed slightly. LME inventory remained unchanged, while SHFE inventory and social inventory of electrolytic aluminum increased, and the social inventory of alumina decreased [4]. - Nickel: The price of Jinchuan nickel increased by 1250 yuan/ton. The prices of some nickel - related products remained stable, while the prices of some new - energy nickel products decreased. LME inventory remained unchanged, while SHFE nickel inventory and social inventory increased, and stainless - steel inventory decreased [4]. - Zinc: The main settlement price increased by 1.2%. The prices of related zinc products all increased. The weekly TC remained unchanged. LME inventory remained unchanged, while SHFE inventory increased, and the social inventory decreased [6]. - Tin: The main settlement price increased by 4.5%, and the LmeS3 price decreased by 2.1%. The prices of related tin products increased. SHFE inventory decreased, and the registered warehouse receipt increased [6]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - Spot Premium: The report provides charts of the spot premium of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2026 [7][8][9]. - SHFE Near - Far Month Spread: Charts of the near - far month spread of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2026 are presented [13][15][17]. - LME Inventory: Charts of the LME inventory of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2026 are shown [19][21][23]. - SHFE Inventory: Charts of the SHFE inventory of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2026 are provided [25][27][29]. - Social Inventory: Charts of the social inventory of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series from 2019 - 2026 are presented [31][33][35]. - Smelting Profit: Charts of the copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless - steel 304 smelting profit margin from 2019 - 2026 are shown [38][40][42]. 3.4 Team Introduction - Zhan Dapeng: A science master, currently the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior precious - metals researcher, and a gold intermediate investment analyst. He has over a decade of commodity research experience, serves many leading spot enterprises, and has published dozens of professional articles. His team has won the Best Metal Industry Futures Research Team Award from Futures Daily & Securities Times for four consecutive sessions [45]. - Wang Heng: A finance master from the University of Adelaide, Australia. An analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching aluminum and silicon. He has won relevant industry awards, focuses on the domestic non - ferrous industry and new - energy industry chain, and provides in - depth reports and policy interpretations [45]. - Zhu Xi: A science master from the University of Warwick, UK. An analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching lithium and nickel. He has won relevant industry awards, focuses on the integration of non - ferrous metals and new energy, and serves many leading new - energy enterprises [46].