地缘风险上升，盘面延续震荡偏强态势

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - With the escalation of the geopolitical situation in Iran, the energy sector has risen as a whole. The PG market has continued to fluctuate strongly, with a firm performance in the external market and continued increases in domestic spot prices. The previously weak ether - post carbon four has also been driven up by the crude oil end. Recently, the LPG market shows a pattern of "strong outside and weak inside", with a marginal tightening of overseas supply and an intensifying geopolitical situation. However, the price inversion between ether - post carbon four and civil gas exerts additional pressure on the PG market. In addition, the game between warehouse receipts and delivery has brought disturbances to the market. In the medium term, the global balance sheet still anticipates an oversupply, with limited internal drivers in the market. Potential upward risks come from the geopolitical level. If the conflict in the Middle East further escalates and Iran's LPG supply declines, it will lead to a significant tightening of domestic supplies, so continuous attention to the situation development is needed [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On January 14, the regional prices were as follows: Shandong market, 4430 - 4470 yuan; Northeast market, 3910 - 4150 yuan; North China market, 4200 - 4430 yuan; East China market, 4350 - 4550 yuan; Yangtze River market, 4750 - 5080 yuan; Northwest market, 4200 - 4400 yuan; South China market, 4990 - 5100 yuan [1]. - In the first half of February 2026, the CIF price of frozen propane in East China, China was 607 US dollars/ton, up 7 US dollars/ton, and butane was 602 US dollars/ton, up 7 US dollars/ton. The RMB - converted price of propane was 4686 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan/ton, and butane was 4647 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan/ton [1]. - In the first half of February 2026, the CIF price of frozen propane in South China, China was 599 US dollars/ton, up 7 US dollars/ton, and butane was 594 US dollars/ton, up 7 US dollars/ton. The RMB - converted price of propane was 4624 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan/ton, and butane was 4585 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan/ton [1]. Strategy - Unilateral: In the short term, the market fluctuates strongly. It is advisable to wait and see, and pay attention to the development of the situation in Iran. There are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [2].