光大期货煤化工商品日报-20260115

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Urea: The urea futures price oscillated upward on Wednesday, with the closing price of the main 05 contract at 1,814 yuan/ton, a gain of 2.02%. The spot market continued to strengthen. Supply is expected to increase with the resumption of gas - based enterprises, but the pace needs attention. Demand has improved significantly, with the sales - to - production ratio reaching 120% - 310% in the mainstream areas. The market is expected to be in a high - level and strong oscillation, but the room for further increase is limited [1]. - Soda Ash: The soda ash futures price fluctuated widely on Wednesday, with the closing price of the main 05 contract at 1,222 yuan/ton, a slight decline of 0.16%. The spot prices were stable. The industry's operating rate increased slightly. The supply - demand pressure remains high, and the futures price will mainly oscillate and consolidate in the short term [1]. - Glass: The glass futures price fluctuated weakly on Wednesday, with the closing price of the main 05 contract at 1,096 yuan/ton, a decline of 2.06%. The spot price was stable. Supply may change before the Spring Festival, and demand follow - up has weakened. The futures price is expected to maintain a weak oscillation trend [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Information Urea - On January 14, the urea futures warehouse receipts on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange were 13,355, unchanged from the previous trading day, with 100 valid forecasts. The daily output of the urea industry was 199,800 tons, unchanged from the previous working day and 135,000 tons more than the same period last year. The operating rate was 84.86%, 1.68 percentage points higher than the same period last year [4]. - On January 14, the inventory of urea enterprises was 986,100 tons, a weekly decrease of 36,100 tons or 3.53% [5]. - On January 14, the spot prices of small - particle urea in various domestic regions: Shandong was 1,740 yuan/ton (unchanged), Henan was 1,750 yuan/ton (+10), Hebei was 1,740 yuan/ton (unchanged), Anhui was 1,750 yuan/ton (unchanged), Jiangsu was 1,760 yuan/ton (+10), and Shanxi was 1,630 yuan/ton (+10) [4]. Soda Ash & Glass - On January 14, the number of soda ash futures warehouse receipts on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange was 3,813, a decrease of 1,400 from the previous trading day, with 1,341 valid forecasts; the number of glass futures warehouse receipts was 2,058, unchanged from the previous trading day [7]. - On January 14, the spot prices of soda ash in different regions varied. For example, in North China, light soda ash was 1,200 yuan/ton and heavy soda ash was 1,250 yuan/ton [7]. - On January 14, the operating rate of the soda ash industry was 87.21%, up from 86.82% the previous working day. The average price of the float glass market was 1,097 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the daily output was 150,600 tons per day, also unchanged [8]. Chart Analysis The report includes multiple charts such as the closing price, basis, trading volume, and position of the main contracts of urea, soda ash, and glass, as well as the price spreads between different contracts and varieties. All chart data sources are iFind and the Everbright Futures Research Institute [10][12][19][20]. Research Team Introduction - Zhang Xiaojin, the director of the resource product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, focuses on the sugar industry research and has won many awards [24]. - Zhang Linglu, an analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, is responsible for the research of futures varieties such as urea, soda ash, and glass and has won many honors [24]. - Sun Chengzhen, an analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, is engaged in the fundamental research and data analysis of varieties such as cotton, cotton yarn, and ferroalloys and has also won relevant awards [24].