碳酸锂日报（2026年1月15日）-20260115

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The price of lithium carbonate futures 2605 dropped 3.53% to 161,940 yuan/ton yesterday. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate, industrial - grade lithium carbonate, and battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) all increased by 3,500 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory increased by 260 tons to 27,158 tons [2]. - Brazilian lithium mining giant Sigma Lithium announced the sale of 100,000 tons of high - purity lithium concentrate powder on January 13 and updated the latest situation of mining restart activities [2]. - On the supply side, the weekly output increased by 115 tons to 22,535 tons, but the lithium carbonate output in January 2026 is expected to decline 1.2% to 97,970 tons. On the demand side, the output of ternary materials, ternary power batteries, and iron - lithium power batteries in January 2026 is expected to decline, while the output of iron - lithium energy storage is expected to increase 0.99% to 63.15 GWh. The weekly social inventory of lithium carbonate increased by 337 tons to 109,942 tons [2]. - Considering factors such as export tax rebate adjustment, strong terminal expectations, anti - involution of battery factories, and upward revision of production schedules by cathode material manufacturers, even if the sharp rise in raw material prices may suppress terminal demand, it is difficult to disprove in the short term. Under the trading logic of low downstream inventory and long - term bullish on lithium prices, the overall price is likely to rise rather than fall, and short - term capital disturbances should be vigilant [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research View - Price Changes: The lithium carbonate futures 2605 fell 3.53% to 161,940 yuan/ton. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate, industrial - grade lithium carbonate, and battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) rose 3,500 yuan/ton [2]. - News: Brazilian lithium mining giant Sigma Lithium announced the sale of 100,000 tons of high - purity lithium concentrate powder and updated mining restart information [2]. - Supply - Demand - Inventory: Supply: weekly output increased by 115 tons, but January 2026 output is expected to decline 1.2%. Demand: the output of most products in January 2026 is expected to decline, except for iron - lithium energy storage. Inventory: weekly social inventory increased by 337 tons [2]. - Price Outlook: The price is likely to rise rather than fall, and short - term capital disturbances should be vigilant [2]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - Futures: The closing price of the main contract decreased by 5,040 yuan/ton, while the continuous contract increased by 3,540 yuan/ton [4]. - Lithium Ore: The prices of lithium ore such as lithium spodumene concentrate and lithium mica increased to varying degrees [4]. - Lithium and Lithium Salts: The prices of battery - grade lithium carbonate, industrial - grade lithium carbonate, and battery - grade lithium hydroxide increased by 3,500 yuan/ton, while the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate decreased by 500 yuan/ton [4]. - Price Differences: Some price differences remained unchanged, while some changed slightly [4]. - Precursors and Cathode Materials: The prices of most precursors and cathode materials increased [4]. - Cells and Batteries: The prices of some cells and batteries increased slightly [4]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - Ore Prices: Charts show the price trends of lithium spodumene concentrate, lithium mica, and other ores from 2024 to 2026 [5][8]. - Lithium and Lithium Salt Prices: Charts present the price trends of metal lithium, battery - grade lithium carbonate, and other lithium products from 2024 to 2026 [11][13][17]. - Price Differences: Charts display the price differences between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, etc., from 2024 to 2026 [19]. - Precursors and Cathode Materials: Charts show the price trends of ternary precursors, ternary materials, and other products from 2024 to 2026 [25][27][29]. - Lithium Battery Prices: Charts present the price trends of 523 square ternary cells, square lithium iron phosphate cells, etc., from 2024 to 2026 [31][34]. - Inventory: Charts show the inventory trends of downstream, smelters, and other links from May 2025 to January 2026 [36][39]. - Production Costs: Charts display the production profit trends of different raw materials from 2024 to 2026 [40].