缺乏利好驱动，板块上方承压

Report Industry Investment Ratings - All three sectors (cotton, sugar, and pulp) are rated neutral [3][6][9] Core Views - The cotton market lacks positive drivers and faces pressure from downstream transmission and internal - external price differentials in the short term. In the long term, its upward potential depends on policy implementation [2][3] - The sugar market is in a state of global surplus in the 25/26 season. Although the short - term trade flow is tight, the medium - term outlook is bearish. The long - term price is not overly pessimistic. Currently, domestic sugar is in a state of supply increase, and the short - to - medium - term price is expected to oscillate at the bottom [5][6] - The pulp market has continuous overseas supply disruptions. With the expectation of pre - Spring Festival restocking, domestic demand may show a mild recovery. The short - term trend is expected to be slightly stronger in oscillation, but the upward height depends on demand improvement and port inventory digestion [8][9] Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Important Data - Futures: The cotton 2605 contract closed at 14,810 yuan/ton yesterday, up 50 yuan/ton (+0.34%) from the previous day. Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,717 yuan/ton, up 217 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of CF05 + 907, up 167 from the previous day; the national average price of 3128B cotton was 15,970 yuan/ton, up 187 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of CF05 + 1160, up 137 from the previous day. From January 5th to 11th, the number of ginning mills in Xinjiang that ended processing increased, and the processing volume continued to decline. The average purchase price of inland seed cotton was 6.78 yuan/kg, down 0.17 yuan/kg from the previous week. As of January 11th, 1096 cotton processing enterprises nationwide had conducted notarized inspections, with a total inspection weight of 6.784 million tons [1] Market Analysis - Internationally, the new cotton in the Northern Hemisphere is concentrated on the market, with high supply pressure and weak global textile consumption. The ICE U.S. cotton is expected to be under pressure in the short term, but has limited downward space in the long term. Domestically, China's cotton production increased significantly in the 25/26 season, and the commercial inventory is seasonally rising. Although the pre - festival stocking by yarn mills and traders is active, downstream orders and product sales have decreased, and the inventory in the industrial chain, especially at the grey fabric end, has increased significantly. For the whole year, domestic cotton consumption has increased due to the expansion of yarn spindle capacity, and the supply - demand is expected to be balanced, with a possibility of inventory tightening at the end of the year [2] Strategy - Adopt a neutral strategy. Be vigilant against the risk of high - level callbacks in the short term. The long - term upward space depends on the implementation of relevant policies [3] Sugar Market News and Important Data - Futures: The sugar 2605 contract closed at 5299 yuan/ton yesterday, up 46 yuan/ton (+0.88%) from the previous day. Spot: The spot price of sugar in Nanning, Guangxi was 5370 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of SR05 + 71, down 36 from the previous day; the spot price in Kunming, Yunnan was 5230 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of SR05 - 69, down 46 from the previous day. In the first half of December, the sugarcane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil was 5.92 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.894 million tons (-32.83%); the sugar production was 254,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 102,000 tons (-28.76%) [4] Market Analysis - The global sugar market is in a surplus in the 25/26 season. In the short term, the tight trade flow in the first quarter may support the raw sugar price. In the medium term, the surplus pattern will suppress the market. In the long term, the market expects the sugar - making ratio in Brazil to decline in the 26/27 season, and there are still uncertainties in the weather in 2026 and the planting area in Thailand. In China, sugar production has increased for the third consecutive year, and the pre - festival stocking demand may support the price. However, the import pressure is high, and the amount of syrup has not decreased significantly [5][6] Strategy - Adopt a neutral strategy. In the short - to - medium term, although the valuation is low, there is still a possibility of another bottom - seeking, but the overall downward space is limited, and the price is expected to oscillate at the bottom [6] Pulp Market News and Important Data - Futures: The pulp 2605 contract closed at 5494 yuan/ton yesterday, up 2 yuan/ton (+0.04%) from the previous day. Spot: The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5550 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of SP05 + 56, down 2 from the previous day; the spot price of Russian softwood pulp (Urals and Bratsk) was 5135 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of SP05 - 359, down 2 from the previous day. Yesterday, the imported wood pulp spot market stabilized, with weak trading volume [7] Market Analysis - In terms of supply, there have been continuous news of overseas pulp mill shutdowns and maintenance at the end of 2025. In terms of demand, the inventory of wood pulp in European ports continued to decline in November, and the demand continued to improve. In China, although a large amount of finished paper production capacity has been put into operation this year, the terminal demand is insufficient, and the port inventory has been at a historical high. However, the port inventory decreased slightly in December, and the expansion of downstream paper production capacity will generate marginal incremental demand for pulp, which may support the pulp price to gradually stabilize [8] Strategy - Adopt a neutral strategy. With continuous overseas supply disruptions and the expectation of pre - Spring Festival restocking, the short - term trend is expected to be slightly stronger in oscillation, but the upward height depends on demand improvement and port inventory digestion [9]