特朗普军事打击伊朗概率下降，油价大幅波动

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Short - term long diesel cracking, medium - term short position allocation [3] 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term oil prices are still trading around the possibility of Trump's military action against Iran. Since the US won't gain direct benefits from a military strike on Iran and the implementation is difficult, and neighboring countries are preventing such an action. If the situation in Iran remains unchanged, oil prices are expected to cool down soon [2] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data - WTI February crude oil futures rose 1.42% to $62.02 per barrel, Brent March crude oil futures rose 1.6% to $66.52 per barrel, and SC crude oil futures rose 1.80% to 457 yuan per barrel [1] - Russia's crude oil production decreased slightly in 2025. The daily output decreased by about 0.7% year - on - year to 9.129 million barrels. In December 2025, the production decreased by 73,000 barrels per day month - on - month to 9.304 million barrels per day. The international oil price dropped by more than 18% in 2025 [1] - Iran's oil exports achieved "record growth" in the past 14 months, and external pressures such as tariffs and sanctions have no substantial impact on its oil exports [1] - After the US began seizing ships involved in Venezuelan oil trade, at least 26 ships changed their registration to Russia since early last month. About 13% of nearly 1,500 tankers transporting oil from Russia, Iran, and Venezuela are now registered in Russia [1] Investment Logic - Oil prices fluctuated greatly yesterday. After Trump's statement to wait and see the situation in Iran but not rule out military options, oil prices dropped by more than 3%. Military action against Iran is difficult for the US and may lead to instability in the Middle East [2] Strategy - Short - term oil price drivers are strong. Short - term long diesel cracking, medium - term short position allocation [3] Risk - Downward risks: OPEC significantly increases production, macro black - swan events [3] - Upward risks: Supply of sanctioned oil (Russia, Iran, Venezuela) tightens, large - scale supply disruptions due to Middle East conflicts [3]